“This Putin is false, carry another”: how the US can push Russia to peace – political scientist

The expert is convinced that no Putin Peace parameters with Putin did not produce / collage of UNIANThe recent conversation of the United States Presidents Donald Trump and Russia Vladimir Putin is still more questions than answers. Will it give any positive results for Ukraine, which can be its consequences, and how the United States can push the Russian Federation to peace – UNIAN spoke about it with Vitaliy Kulik, the head of the Center for Civil Society Research.

According to the results of recent statements – not only the White House and the Kremlin as a result of the negotiations of Trump and Putin, but also earlier – it seems that Ukraine’s issue is gradually withdrawn from American -Russian relations. How well can this be and how can it affect Ukraine?

I think it is not removed, but blurred, crushed. Because the United States cannot build US-Russian relations solely on the issue of war and peace in Ukraine, since their interests are far beyond Europe and still cover the whole world.

And in this cover Russia is present, and it is necessary to reach some points, where the compromises between Washington and Moscow will not be as painful, not as resourceful as in Ukraine.

Therefore, for example, finding common positions in the economic sphere, in the sphere of global challenges, nuclear restraint, in a question related to intelligence and extraction of fossils, energy, etc. is an area where agreements are possible.

The second is the question of the Middle East, for example. The so -called Great Middle East, which includes not only Israel and Palestine, but a much larger region. This is a matter of the Iranian nuclear program, it is a question of a security situation in the Pacific and the nuclear program, such as the DPRK and their missile program.

This is a question of Russian-Chinese relationships. And Trump frankly says that Russia and China have made an unnatural union, and the United States is interested in keeping the parties away from each other. It is also Trump’s conversation with Putin and negotiations.

However, all these important issues that Trump and Putin are discussing – they are still in a magical way around Ukraine. Now the parties have gone the way to obtain some points of possible progress in bilateral relations, to show progress that “here we have agreed and this is the reason that we are scale on these agreements on a global partnership, and this global partnership is somehow to resolve the issue of peace in Ukraine.”

That “we will reach the level of dialogue, we will establish trust in each other and this trust will then accelerate the solution of the situation and establish peace between Russia and Ukraine.”

This is somewhere in the United States, Trump himself, in his administration. And the Russians see somewhere. Because by selling Trump some long -lasting or long -awaited results, they understand that Trump has an electoral limited time for their implementation. And Putin has no such electoral time. Putin, like Kim Jong -in, does not think of electoral time, with his cadences. Because they are the life dictators of their countries.

So they sell: “Let’s talk about the extraction of energy or some valuable fossils in the Arctic?”. “Okay. Here we showed the progress of our negotiations. Here we will cooperate.” And then Russia says that “Let us now consider the question of how we will cooperate if we have sanctions on Russian companies? Let us have these sanctions.” “Okay. Let’s remove these sanctions. Let’s talk about Ukraine, some little case.”

Therefore, there is a danger like me. This is that it is a crushing of the Ukrainian issue, the translation of the issue of war and peace into some sectoral agreements, such as a truce in the energy sphere or a truce in the Black Sea – it is due to concessions in the areas where we have the advantage. Because the demilitarization of the Black Sea and the closure, by and large, the Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk, is our strategic advantage, we have achieved this with sea drones. We have the opportunity to strike direct strokes on the Kerch Bridge. And it is also critical for Russia. Therefore, Russia tries to weaken us as much as possible.

We beat Russian refineries. And it is obvious that Russia is also interested in the truce in order to prevent a critical reduction in the processing of petroleum products and problems in its energy sphere. We can now beat gas routes in Russia. And this is even more fearful of the Russians, because it will be a significant blow to entire regions.

Therefore, we are offered these sectoral cases. We can partially agree. Moreover, I remind you what Trump was talking about with Putin is, in fact, what Zelensky Trump offered. With a slight exception.

Now there will be a second round of negotiations in Jedda. It is not in vain that Vitcoff speaks of “devil in details”, because Russia tries to put irreversible obligations from Ukraine, irreversible obligations of the West, for example, with the help of Ukraine.

We heard from Trump that the issue of military support was not discussed. But in reality, Russia gave a clear signal that it sees the efficiency of negotiations in Jeddi-2 in the part of the decline, unless the complete termination of military assistance.

They can roll us a list, such as missiles that are not supplied to Ukraine, because these missiles are used by Ukraine for the task of energy strikes, and “because we have a truce by energy infrastructure, why do these missiles?”

Most of the points that were voiced were quite streamlined. If you do not take into account the exchange of prisoners, which has been carried out many times without Trump, the only specific thing that Trump and Putin have agreed in 2.5 hours – are the matches of hockey leagues NHL and KHL. Can this indicate that the parties have not agreed on key issues about the end of the war?

I think that the parties did not agree on the end of the war. No agreement in advance is that some people say – parapolytologists are trying to throw in the Ukrainian media sphere – does not exist. This agreement is now formed in our eyes.

And the parameters of this possible agreement, which will not necessarily take place at all – they are being formed now. Both in the battlefield, in the economy, in the social sphere of Ukraine, and in international relations, in particular in the ability of the West to form a coalition and protect their lines and their border.

Therefore, for me, Trump and Putin’s peace with Putin. And talk about the fast The armistice is possible only in circumstances where it will become very critical for Russia. When she realizes that in the event of a complete disruption of the negotiation process, we can be pumped by weapons so that the promotion of Russian troops will lose its dynamics, and Russia is larger on positional battles with maximum losses. That’s only this can push Putin to a fast truce, and then – to the long negotiation process about the political framework.

Now Putin is trying to get the maximum from Trump. Because he sees that Trump wants a truce, already by May, that Trump wants a full truce in April, and they throw and throw Trump: “And let’s it, let’s it, let’s it. You want a fast peace? They expel this ultimatum, which was allegedly voiced at Putin’s closed meeting with entrepreneurs. On fixing there and the recognition of Crimea and occupied territories.

The idea of ​​refusing 30 days from the blows of energy infrastructure can be the first of a number of steps to stop war, or Putin, refusing everything else, Trump, roughly speaking, “threw a bone” to show that he could agree to at least something?

It remains in negotiations, but not ready for quick results. Trump can annoy it. But Trump can’t get out of this. He will either show Putin’s unseenability and say that “this Putin is false, carry another”, and then, accordingly, the rhetoric against Ukraine and the actions of the states from pushing Russia to peace will change, or they will enter some framework in Jedda at least on this temporary.

I still do not see opportunities, say, somehow strengthen our positions. Unfortunately. The failure of voting in Europe for doubling the military budget also indicates this. We cannot be involved in the support of Europe and British in order to start Jedda-2 and for Ukraine with favorable positions.

And more significant concessions on our part can be?

Yes, whatever you want: from the restriction of the Armed Forces, the rejection of some types of offensive weapons of the Western design, which does not exclude, by the way, the production of its, to a peacekeeping or so-called stabilization or observation mission to verify the termination of war on the line of demarcation from Chinese, for example.

Or this, in particular, that different insiders are thrown, that the United States can consider the recognition of Crimea in Russian. But even a change in rhetoric, the official position of the United States that it is a controversial territory is already a giant threat to Ukraine.