“However, for its implementation, Europe must abandon the habit of persuading Putin to stop the killings.”, — write: www.unian.ua
However, for its implementation, Europe must abandon the habit of persuading Putin to stop the killings.
Peacekeepers must be ready for real combat, not just observation / photo wikipedia.orgIn Europe, the idea of placing peacekeepers in Ukraine is being actively discussed in order to prevent a renewal of the war after peace is concluded. But it will make sense only when it is a powerful army ready for battle, and not just neutral observers, Franz-Stefan Gadi, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies on Cyber Power and Future Conflicts, writes in an author’s article for Foreign Policy.He noted that for three years Europe avoided making strong decisions in support of Ukraine and, it seems, only now realized the scale of the risks that would arise for it in the event of a Russian victory.
The topic of peacekeepers is also raised in this context – to prevent the resumption of war later. But any idea of deterring Russia from breaking the agreed truce with symbolic peacekeeping forces is a fantasy, the author of the publication is convinced. According to his conviction, only powerful forces capable of fighting and holding their positions in the event of Russian aggression can keep the battle-hardened army of the aggressor from a new offensive.
However, there is a problem here. Russia will never agree to a powerful group of troops of NATO countries appearing on the demarcation line. And the usual weak UN peacekeeping forces will not be enough for deterrence.
According to Franz-Stefan Gadi, a potential solution could be a combination of both options: traditional neutral peacekeepers, ideally from countries of the Global South, could patrol the demilitarized zone along the ceasefire line, while a powerful European rapid response force could be deployed further inside Ukraine.
This option means that Ukraine will not have US troops and will not become a NATO member, potentially making such a combination more acceptable to Russia. However, Europe must be ready to allocate a powerful military group with a mandate for decisive action for this.
According to the author’s calculations, this will require at least five brigades — approximately 25–30 thousand military personnel. But taking into account the needs for the rotation of these forces, it will actually be necessary to allocate from 75,000 to 90,000 European troops. And this is not counting the support staff.
According to the analyst, Europe is theoretically capable of implementing such a project. But for this, many organizational issues will have to be resolved – both regarding the introduction of troops and the conditions for their withdrawal. In addition, even if US troops do not enter the territory of Ukraine, the Americans will probably have to increase their contingent in Western Europe to compensate for the movement of European troops to the east of the continent.
“This operation cannot be compared to the deployment of European forces in Afghanistan or Iraq. European forces must be prepared for intensive, large-scale combat operations against Russia, not for small operations against lightly armed insurgents. This includes having a clear plan to respond to the inevitable Russian provocations, including sabotage behind the cease-fire line or “accidental” missile strikes that kill and injure European personnel,” the analyst emphasizes.
Therefore, it will be about deploying in Ukraine not only infantry, but full-fledged armies – for tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, air defense systems, EW means and combat aircraft.
At the same time, the author admits that the main question is not how to organize a peacekeeping mission, but whether the Europeans will have the courage to enter the battle, and not, as now, “for weeks to politely ask Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop.”
Peacekeepers in Ukraine: the latest newsAs UNIAN wrote, military expert Ivan Stupak outlined three scenarios for the possible introduction of peacekeepers into Ukraine. The least likely option is when the peacekeepers stop the hostilities by force. In his opinion, it is more likely that the peacekeepers will appear only after the ceasefire and the signing of peace.
On the other hand, another expert Oleg Belokolos considers the idea of peacekeepers to be unrealistic at all. In his opinion, the West does not have enough political will for this and is not ready to spend money on it.
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