The US peace plan: the political scientist told whether Washington will be able to put pressure on Ukraine in case of disagreement

A political scientist believes that the Kremlin is unlikely to agree to any proposals from Europe / UNIAN illustrationUkraine may refuse territorial concessions in Trump’s peace plan. As political scientist Ihor Reiterovych told UNIAN, in this case, US pressure on Kyiv is possible, but ineffective. At the same time, the European version of the plan, which is being prepared together with Ukraine, is able to take into account Ukrainian proposals and significantly complicate any claims for the Kremlin.

If Ukraine refuses territorial concessions, and the Kremlin insists on them, can the US put pressure on Kyiv in this case?

Of course, the Kremlin can insist, but it is now pretending that it does not know anything about this document. And says that they did not receive anything from the United States. This is a very important point. Theoretically, the Russians can try to shift the responsibility to Ukraine, but in fact it will look as if it is not so much the Russians who are doing it, but the United States itself, because it was the United States that gave this plan to Ukraine.

I am more than convinced that if the Trump administration tries to play such a game and say that we have done everything we can, and it is Ukraine that does not want to end the war, this story will end very, very badly and even shamefully for the United States. It seems to me that the White House knows about this, and they will try in every possible way to impose on Ukraine the necessity of adopting certain provisions of this plan, hoping that there will not be any broad and serious discussion about the end of the war. But these are vain hopes.

Trump himself has raised the level of expectations so much that now simply offering the option: “let’s stop shooting and give some incomprehensible guarantees” will not work and will get out of Trump’s side.

Is it possible to pressure from the US in the form of stopping the supply of weapons?

During the presidency of Donald Trump, the USA did not provide any free military or financial aid to Ukraine. Everything we received, we either bought ourselves, or Europeans bought it and, in fact, gave it to Ukraine. Or it was the remnants of Biden’s programs. Therefore, of course, they can threaten us, but the situation has changed now. And there is no such critical dependence, well, except, perhaps, air defense systems. But on the other hand, they will be able to buy anti-aircraft missiles from the Americans, and it will be very difficult for the Americans to refuse the Europeans.

Despite the fact that the US can offer Ukraine certain conditions, this does not mean that everything will happen as it suits them. With his loud statements, Trump has driven himself into a situation in which it will no longer be possible to simply shift all responsibility to Ukraine.

Europe is preparing an alternative plan: what can be in it?

If Ukraine and the countries of Europe have a common position that they can clearly convey to Trump and submit their specific proposals to his plan, it will greatly complicate any attempts by the US to accuse Ukraine of not wanting peace.

Those points of the American plan, which obviously work in favor of Russia, will most likely be formulated in a completely different way in the European version. But it is obvious that we are not talking about any “recognition of territories” by the Russians, nor about mitigating responsibility for crimes, nor about other similar concessions.

Plus, I am convinced that the most important thing that will be missing in this plan, and this is for sure, is any issues related to internal Ukrainian politics, the Europeans will not go for it. Because they understand very well that this is “letting the genie out of the bottle”.

What points of the European plan could the Kremlin theoretically agree or disagree with?

The Kremlin is unlikely to agree to any proposals. Most likely, the Russians will declare that the plan is unacceptable for them and is not even subject to discussion, because it allegedly does not eliminate the “root causes of the conflict” from their point of view.

It is important for us that this plan be developed, that it be offered to Trump from Europe and from Ukraine. Well, to show that we have also developed something. And it is obvious that the compromise for Russia will be in the fact that we will talk about the front line and the end of the war along the demarcation line. This is already a compromise on the part of Ukraine, and a colossal compromise. Perhaps the lifting of some part of the sanctions, after Russia compensates us for the losses due to the frozen assets.

Can the published NABU materials be considered an attempt to influence Zelenskyi and make him more compliant?

This is a stupid story. I know that some have linked it, that almost the Americans did it with these films, it is not true. Because it was not the Americans who sent Mindich, it was not the Americans who forced someone to engage in corruption. Americans, let’s be honest, are trying to take advantage of this situation. But the paradox of the situation is that now this appearance of the American plan will play into Zelensky’s hand even more. Because, as he said yesterday at the meeting with the faction, the key issue for us is peace. Let’s now put aside stories about corruption, fight off this “moron” plan, or reformat it, and then we will deal with other issues.

If they wanted to weaken Zelenskyi, they would have to release other tapes, perhaps with his name or voice. And there are none, so either they simply do not exist, or this is not a planned action.

Why did the US choose a 10-year term for this peace treaty?

It is difficult for me to say for sure, the treaty itself mentions the creation of a council headed by Trump, etc., but he is, firstly, a mortal man, and secondly, the president of the USA for only three years. Therefore, 10 years was probably chosen as the standard term in international practice – so that during this time the issue could be “resolved” on its own.

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