November 15, 2024
The Russians use the capture of Vugledar for further offensive - ISW thumbnail
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The Russians use the capture of Vugledar for further offensive – ISW

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War point out that Russian troops are using the capture of Vugledar for further offensive operations and alignment of the front line due to the elimination of the Ukrainian salient in the west of the Donetsk region.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War point out that Russian troops are using the capture of Vugledar for further offensive operations and alignment of the front line due to the elimination of the Ukrainian salient in the west of the Donetsk region.

Source: ISW

Literally: “Russian forces are successfully using the recent capture of Vugledar to achieve tactically significant gains south of Kurakhovo in support of ongoing offensive operations aimed at leveling the front line and eliminating the Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast.”

Details: Russian troops intensified offensive operations in the west of Donetsk Oblast in early September 2024 and are currently trying to capture Kurakhove from the north and south and align the front line between Sontsivka (northwest of Kurakhovo) and Shakhtarsky (northwest of Vugledar).

Analysts note that the further advance of Russian troops to Dalnye and to the west of it could force Ukrainian troops to retreat from their positions in the pocket north and northeast of Vugledar and allow Russian troops to advance relatively unimpeded along highway C051104.

Such an advance will allow Russian troops to continue putting pressure on Ukrainian positions in Kurakhovo from the south.

Literally: “ISW has revised its previous assessment that Russian forces are unlikely to be able to use the capture of Vugledar for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast. This assessment was wrong.”

Details: Russian troops also continued to advance in other areas on the Kurakhiv and Ugledar directions on November 10 and 11.

In addition, Russian troops are reported to be continuing to advance near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, and Russian advances northwest of Vugledar and south of Velika Novosilka may begin to pressure Ukrainian positions in Velika Novosilka.

The report notes that Russian troops are advancing in the western part of Donetsk region at a moderate pace, but it remains highly unlikely that they will be able to carry out a quick mechanized maneuver that would allow them to successfully encircle Ukrainian troops.

Ukrainian and Russian sources said on November 11 that damage to the dam of the Kurakhiv Reservoir is causing the flooding of nearby settlements.

However, Ukrainian and Russian sources differ on who is responsible for the damage to the dam, but Russian forces reportedly struck the dam in September 2024.

Russian forces may have blown up the dam to cause significant and prolonged flooding west of Kurakhiv Reservoir, which could aid Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian forces north and south of Kurakhiv.

ISW key findings for November 11:

  • Russian forces are successfully using the recent capture of Vugledar to achieve tactical gains south of Kurakhovo in support of Russian offensive operations aimed at leveling the front line and eliminating the Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • ISW revised its earlier assessment that Russian forces were unlikely to be able to use the capture of Vugledar for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast. This assessment turned out to be incorrect.
  • According to reports, Russian troops continue to advance near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, and Russian offensives northwest of Vugledar and south of Velika Novosilka may begin to pressure Ukrainian positions in Velika Novosilka.
  • Russian troops are advancing in western Donetsk region at a moderate pace, but it remains highly unlikely that they will be able to carry out a quick mechanized maneuver that could successfully encircle Ukrainian forces.
  • Ukrainian and Russian sources said on November 11 that damage to the dam of the Kurakhiv Reservoir caused the flooding of nearby settlements.
  • Ukrainian and Russian sources differed on who was responsible for the damage to the dam, but Russian forces reportedly struck the dam in September 2024.
  • Russian forces could strike the dam to cause significant, long-lasting flooding west of the Kurakhiv Reservoir, which would facilitate Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian forces north and south of the Kurakhiv.
  • On November 11, Kremlin spokesman Dmytro Peskov denied reports of a telephone conversation between the ruler of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and the newly elected US president, Donald Trump.
  • Ukrainian troops have recently advanced in the Kursk region. Russian troops have recently advanced in the Kursk region and near Kreminnaya and Kurakhovo.
  • Russian regional governments continue to allocate a significant portion of their social budgets to pay Russian veterans, likely part of an ongoing effort to encourage Russian military service.

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