“The recent International Conference on Security in Munich has become a “cold shower” for Europe. The statements of American high -ranking officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have caused a tumultuous discussion on both sidelines and from the conference scene.”, – WRITE: www.pravda.com.ua
For many European politicians who are accustomed to relying on US leadership and who, since the election and inauguration of President Trump, were guided by the approach “Wait and see what his decisions” will be “and even voiced” cautious optimism “about Trump’s prospects to achieve the end of war, such statements have become indisputable shock. Particularly impressed was the fact that the United States does not see Europeans as important players in potential negotiations or searching for ways to solve war. This showed that the transatlantic unity cracks the seams and made Europeans think about their place in the region’s security policy. At the same time, this alarm signal may be the call that will eventually awaken Europe.
Read also: Six conclusions after the Munich Security Conference
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Given the clear position of the new US administration that the security of Europe is the direct responsibility of Europe itself, there is a critical point for it to show its subjectivity. European leaders in their speeches convinced Ukraine of steadfastness and increasing their support. Now the main thing is that these statements be transformed into practical and decisive decisions. In particular, this decision and demonstration of a clear position and leadership could be the complete confiscation of frozen Russian assets and their transfer to Ukraine. As well as powerful packages of military support or strengthening of sanctions against Russia. The emergency summit of European leaders in Paris is the first practical step in this direction.
Only Russia, which has always sought to achieve a split between the key partners of Ukraine, wins from the weakening of the transatlantic unity. However, the European partners probably felt for the first time that they were with Ukraine in one boat. After all, our safety is their safety. That is why the performance of the Ukrainian President was perceived especially warm. Now not only Ukraine knows how it is when they talk about you without your participation and be suggested by your subjectivity. Also in the speech of Zelensky sounded a signal for actions: “I believe in Europe. And I am sure that you also believe in it. I urge you to act for yourself, for the sake of Europe, for the sake of Europe, for the sake of your countries, for the sake of your homes, for your sake, for your sake children and for the sake of our common future. ”
What awaits Ukraine in negotiations and NATO? Both Ukraine and European partners have been unanimously said that Ukraine should be part of the negotiation process, and in the end, it should be a decision that it is acceptable and not.
American partners have convinced that Trump is interested in the long -term peace and does not plan to “pass Ukraine”. He tries to show his strength, and this is part of his strategy in negotiations. It was the specificity of the talking strategy that also explained the rapid changes in Trump’s positions and statements and representatives of his team. However, critics of this approach are inclined to believe that the Trump team can send different signals, because different officials are trying to guess what Trump thinks about a particular issue, and he does not yet have a clear plan.
Moreover, a number of Europeans believe that Trump, on the contrary, falls into the trap of the Russians, showing weakness before the negotiations. In their opinion, first of all it is necessary to start with pressure on Russia, and then start negotiations. Moreover, it is first necessary to negotiate a temporary ceasefire, which can be accompanied by steps such as the exchange of prisoners, the return of deported children, etc.
The idea of ceasefire, if it happens, should not be seen as a peace agreement – this is only a temporary step, some partners consider. And it is only in the next stage to start talking about peace. A number of Europeans also advised that they should not agree to conditions that do not meet our interests.
Security guarantees remain the cornerstone. Such may be the military presence of partners, but this responsibility Americans want to put on Europeans, saying that they will not participate in this format. Also, Americans do not consider Ukraine to be realistic. However, at the conference, the Americans voiced another creative idea of guarantees – if Russia attacks Ukraine again, Ukraine will automatically become a member of NATO. In their view, this could be a kind of preventive step to restrain Putin, because it will become clear to him that a new aggression against Ukraine will lead to its entry into NATO.
However, there are more questions in such a proposal than answers. First, there are no automatic membership procedures, the decision on admission should be made by consensus and requires the approval of all Member States. Even the accelerated procedure for admission to the Finland and Sweden Alliance lasted almost a year for Finns (and this was considered a record quickly) and almost two for the Swedes. And in the case of Ukraine, this process can be further complicated by countries such as Hungary.
Secondly, it is difficult to imagine that NATO allies who did not find political will to accept Ukraine to a full-scale invasion would suddenly find it in the case of another potential aggression. Finally, such a decision directly or indirectly translates responsibility for NATO membership to Putin, just as it is de facto fears of Russia’s response and are now interfering with partners in making this decision. At the same time, a number of European officials emphasize that Ukraine’s membership in NATO would now become an effective and cheapest security guarantee.
Instead of conclusions There are many unexpected statements from the US leadership ahead of Ukraine and Europe. The meeting between Trump and Putin, which was announced, would also be inevitable. In the sidelines, the tips were stored with a cold head and their plan of action, focusing on key own priorities. In this process, we also need an internal unity than ever. And from European partners, you want to see strategic leadership and specific actions that should confirm their words and provide real support to Ukraine at this critical moment.
Irina Krasnoshtan
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