The IMF has updated the forecast for the duration of war in Ukraine

The International Monetary Fund has updated its estimates on the war in Ukraine and the prospects for the development of the Ukrainian economy.

This is stated in the IMF memorandum.

According to the base The script, the active phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war will last until the end of 2025.

The IMF notes that peace negotiations have not produced results, so the risks of tightening or escalation of the conflict remain high.

The IMF itself recognizes that the Ukraine support program has limited flexibility in the event of new shocks, in particular, if the fighting will last longer or intensify. At the same time, it gives Ukraine the opportunity to implement key reforms to strengthen economic stability.

Economy Forecast for 2025:

-GDP growth is left at 2-3% per annum.

– Inflation by the end of 2025 will decrease to 9% due to rigid monetary policy and reducing the rate of growth of products for products.

– the current account deficit (excluding grants) will increase by 1.7% of GDP due to the growth of gas imports, agrarian losses and priority import expansion.

– International reserves by the end of 2025 will amount to $ 53.4 billion – below previous expectations.

The Fund also pays attention to the increase in defense expenses: in 2025 they will increase by 5.8% of GDP, so the government plans to submit to the Parliament a bill on amendments to the budget.

The World Bank also supports the forecast of the end of the active phase of war at the end of 2025, after which gradual economic growth is expected – up to 4.5% in 2026 (IMF estimates) or up to 5.2% (according to the World Bank).

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