July 3, 2025
The IMF has changed a negative scenario in the updated program with Ukraine: it allows for deterioration thumbnail
UKRAINIAN NEWS

The IMF has changed a negative scenario in the updated program with Ukraine: it allows for deterioration

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly changed the negative scenario during the eighth viewing of the EFF extended financing program for Ukraine, it assumes alternative more pessimistic scenarios.

This is stated in a document published on the Fund’s website, passes Interfax-Ukraine.

“The Foundation acknowledges that the risks for the negative scenario are extremely high. Alternative negative scenarios, including other duration of war or less persistent peace results, are possible; however, at this stage, their modeling is premature, given that peace talks are still ongoing and their results are very uncertain.”

The IMF reminds that the current negative scenario suggests the end of the war in the II Kv.-2026.

During the 8th viewing, the shock was shifted to the III KV-2025.

According to this scenario, real GDP will be reduced by 1% this year (this is 1 percentage point (VP) more than in the seventh view), next year will be zero (0.5 VP more than in the preliminary view), and in 2027-3.8% (as pre-viewing).

Also, in the eighth viewing of the program to the risks of exacerbation and increasing the duration of war, reducing foreign economic and military assistance, the Fund added the risk of populist pressure and strengthening resistance from stakeholders, which in practice can complicate the efforts of the authorities on reforms, in particular through parliament.

Recall:

Ukraine Got it The ninth tranche of about $ 500 million from the IMF under the four -year program of expanded funding (EFF).

”, – WRITE: epravda.com.ua

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly changed the negative scenario during the eighth viewing of the EFF extended financing program for Ukraine, it assumes alternative more pessimistic scenarios.

This is stated in a document published on the Fund’s website, passes Interfax-Ukraine.

“The Foundation acknowledges that the risks for the negative scenario are extremely high. Alternative negative scenarios, including other duration of war or less persistent peace results, are possible; however, at this stage, their modeling is premature, given that peace talks are still ongoing and their results are very uncertain.”

The IMF reminds that the current negative scenario suggests the end of the war in the II Kv.-2026.

During the 8th viewing, the shock was shifted to the III KV-2025.

According to this scenario, real GDP will be reduced by 1% this year (this is 1 percentage point (VP) more than in the seventh view), next year will be zero (0.5 VP more than in the preliminary view), and in 2027-3.8% (as pre-viewing).

Also, in the eighth viewing of the program to the risks of exacerbation and increasing the duration of war, reducing foreign economic and military assistance, the Fund added the risk of populist pressure and strengthening resistance from stakeholders, which in practice can complicate the efforts of the authorities on reforms, in particular through parliament.

Recall:

Ukraine Got it The ninth tranche of about $ 500 million from the IMF under the four -year program of expanded funding (EFF).

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