The end of the world order and survival lessons

The current world order system goes into oblivion. Like the eve of the First World Germ, between the global political system and a topical picture of the distribution of forces and resources is becoming more deep. Democracy demonstrates itself as an incapacitated form of society in the current hybrid war, which more and more intensively covers Europe, and totalitarianism has felt the smell of blood and total impunity. Experts believe that the war in Ukraine is not about the occupation of territories, but about changing the current world order, and this process is no longer stopped. The world is rising to the abyss.

The inevitability of the Third World War today can be heard from every iron. As with a full -scale invasion in Ukraine, such a prospect seems too surreal and unlikely – because to believe that current progress, the achievement of science, the development of technology, the efforts of humanitarianism can be “multiplied by zero” and reject humanity by hundreds of years ago. However, the denial of the likelihood of war evokes a sense of dzja. We saw it all in Ukraine. Even corrupted by the comfort and illusion of security, Europeans seriously perceive this threat.

There are no cool places in a hot boiler Why is the New Global War inevitable? First, it became clear to all sadists in power that the international system of law did not exist, so no consequences should not be afraid. As noted at one of the recent meetings, the head of GUR Kirill Budanov, the world was always so, it was just a time, and “the word of strength and the right of strength always existed” and this break between storms has already ended. Today we have millions of victims of hostilities – wounded, killed, tortured. And there is no hope for the restoration of justice. Budanov frankly says that the world is already in the process of World War I – with torture and in fact concentration camps created by Putin and Assad’s regimes. And how much do the planet remain outside the access of humanitarian missions and justice? From Harvard Professor, who is talking all his life in the war zone, I heard that the worst place on the planet, in his opinion, is North Korea, where total dictatorship prevails. He told the case of his own experience when he was simply in his eyes on the power of the authorities artificially hunger to create the necessary picture for the WFP Humanitarian Mission.

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Secondly, as well as at the beginning of the last century, when there has been an imbalance of strength in the world between the old bourgeois states and new industrial countries that sought redistribution of world resources and fought for markets and influence, today we have a new shift on the world map. Modern imbalance is manifested in the mismatch of the arrogance of the “first world” and ambitions, potential and fast -growing economies, which are still called “Second and Third World” countries. Western powers lose their economic advantage due to the rapid development of new players.

The impoverishment of the event and the Asian boom It is no secret that the well-being of the population of Western countries is far from at the level as it was 10-20 years ago. Hence the Trump’s vote in the States – in the hope of resolving internal issues and a fervent desire for the Germans to return cheap Russian gas. “We are tired of paying your check,” they say in a kindergarten that my daughter visits. Europeans themselves share observations: there are no US tourists from American tourists, they do not spend money by visiting European capitals. Instead, tourists from the Asian countries are devastating the shelves of luxury brands, demonstrating eloquently where capital has accumulated today. And this is only a household manifestation of the current imbalance of power in the world.

According to McKinsey, Asia’s economies jointly have become a dominant power in the world economy, providing more than half of key global indicators. This emphasizes the growing role of the region in five major areas: world order, technological platforms, demographic processes, energy and resource systems, as well as financial markets. Today, Asia is not just one of the centers of global development, but the main driver of change that determines the future of the world economy. And they do not agree with the world order, which is still considered dominant.

The event will help us? Since the end of World War II, Europe’s security concept has been that the states will cover it with a nuclear shield. This warm bath had such a soothing effect that now the inability of European countries to self -defense passes through a red thread through the agenda of security collections: catastrophic shortage of weapons, inability of production facilities, the unwillingness of people to fight. However, at the Security Conference in Munich, the US Vice President, Vance, made Europeans understand in a rather superior manner: the rescue of the drowning is a matter of the hands of the drowning ones. At the same time, the United States is frankly – in Russia, which is a key threat to Europe, they do not see a priority enemy, for them the threat # 1 is China and to prevent the creation of powerful alliances of states ready in some areas to come with the Russian Federation.

Nuclear restraint But is nuclear weapons really an effective means of restraining? In order to cause significant damage to the Russian Federation from a nuclear blow, it is necessary to transform its territory literally, saying the words of Russian propagandists, “on radioactive ash”. Nuclear arrival in Moscow is unlikely to have catastrophic consequences for the “empire” – they would be ready to burn it themselves if there was such a strategic need. Now imagine a stroke of a rocket with a nuclear carrier in Paris, London or Berlin. One such volley would be enough for surrender – as a blow to Hiroshima and Nagasaki for Japan. At the same time, Europe acknowledges that it has long been in the hybrid war. Over the past three years, one hundred terrorist attacks, infrastructure damage, cyberattacks, attempts to influence elections, information campaigns and waves of so -called destabilization migration have been carried out in the territory of European countries.

• Blue – election and information campaigns – 35%
• Blue – attacks on critical infrastructure – 33%
• Orange – terrorist attacks – 20%
• Green – Destabilization Migration – 12%

Democracy impotence NATO officers, which I attend for the second consecutive year in my studies, gave me a number of disappointing insights. Demo The ratical form of management is not suitable for wartime, which has actually come. If the Western Bloc requires a number of meetings, meetings and consent of 32 members of the Alliance, including frank margins, then the enemy makes instant decisions individually and immediately submits an order for execution. Obviously, no strategic advantage and defense should be said. In addition, it is surprising that having such an unprecedented opportunity to see with your own eyes a modern conventional war, where a picture of the battle with the use of the latest weapons and tactics is changing every month, NATO fighters do not use this unique opportunity, justifying that it would be a testimony to Ukraine. Ridiculously.

Europe and mobilization readiness On one of the panel discussions within the Munich Security Conference, I asked questions from the hall of speakers, including top officials responsible for security in Europe. “Modern war is still about human resources and the willingness of people to kill the enemy and die for their country. And it is a vulnerable place in Europe. How likely it is to scenario that in the case of a conventional invasion or at least an exacerbation of a hybrid war Europe simply capitulates or give part of the territory.

The surrender of Ukraine will mean the final fall of the system of international humanitarian law – or the laws of war – and the human rights protection system. Currently, it becomes obvious that the remains of a democratic world have nothing to contrast the totalitarian block that has money, resources, numerous human resources, technology, zero value of life and a thirst for a vanguard. It falls on the fact that nowadays to look at the movie about the apocalypse, to take a course of survival – to purify water, to produce fire and to build predators from improvised means. And looking at how one of Al-Qaeda’s leaders came to power from Assad Syria, with the potential to become a full-fledged subject of international diplomacy, we can predict that the new form of nation survival will be insurgent armies and guerrilla units.

Irina Sergeeva

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