The end of the romance of alliances: Ukraine in the world of pragmatic security

Ukraine is in a war where not only the front is decisive. The outcome of this war depends on the decisions, resources and ability of the state to act without illusions. In such a reality, guarantees become conditional, support is selective, and allies increasingly value capabilities rather than words. These changes are no longer informal. They are recorded in the official strategic documents of the leading states.

In November 2025, the United States released a new National Security Strategy (NSS). This is not a declaration of values, but a formalization of a pragmatic approach to security and alliances.

NSS-2025 establishes the logic of American policy: without automatic commitments, without ideological advances, with a clear focus on one’s own security, economic stability and direct national interest.

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For Ukraine, this means a simple, albeit inconvenient, reality: you will have to count on yourself first of all. Not because the world turns away, but because only our own strength determines whether we will be perceived as a partner or as a problem that they are trying to “fix”. This requires a cold look at the international environment and an honest answer to the question of where exactly Ukraine can be strong and irreplaceable.

The key question today is not who will help us and how much, but what contribution we ourselves are able to offer.

Military technologies, the defense industry, the experience of modern warfare – this is where a new language of partnership is formed, which Washington understands and which determines the place of states in the global game.

In this sense, NSS-2025 is neither a background document nor a diplomatic gesture. This is the framework within which decisions about alliances, resources and priorities will be made, and which Ukraine will have to consider regardless of its own expectations.

“America First”: the end of global ambitions On the first page of NSS-2025, the main idea is formulated: the American strategy should be clear, concrete and aimed at protecting priority interests, and not at endless intervention in all corners of the world.

The text states that the US “erred” by taking on excessive global commitments that were not “directly related to US national interests”. Therefore, the administration emphasizes that “our strategy is to protect our people, our territory, our economy and our ways of life.”

This means that the traditional role of the US as the “world policeman” is changing: American aid or intervention becomes conditional, and Washington will not undertake commitments that do not correspond to their national interests.

Strict requirements for allies: new rules of the game Although the NSS-2025 affirms the support of collective security and alliances (eg NATO), it is clearly linked to the growth of the contribution of the allies themselves to their own defense. The US expects a significant increase in defense spending and greater independence from its allies (in particular, up to 5% of GDP).

This is a new logic: support is not automatic or unconditional, it is related to the real contribution of partners to collective security. This approach speaks eloquently about the transition from a “guarantor” to a “partner requiring reciprocity.”

For Ukraine, this means that it cannot rely on the American shoulder; It is important for Kyiv not only to ask for help, but to demonstrate real capabilities and contribution to joint defense.

The priority is the economy, not ideology NSS-2025 emphasizes economic and technological strength as an integral component of national security. The document states that a strong economy, strong industry and technological leadership are what make America truly safe, not just military power.

The strategy declares that the US should reduce dependence on foreign production, strengthen its own supply chains and technological autonomy. This is important for the formation of a new model of security – not “exporting democracy”, but maximum economic and technological independence.

In this logic, foreign aid — including military aid — is viewed through the prism of strategic interests, contracts and mutual benefits, which changes approaches to cooperation with other countries, including Ukraine.

Ukraine is no longer a “key client” but an “actor of stability” In the text of NSS-2025 itself, there is no public declaration that the victory of Ukraine in the war is a strategic goal of the USA. The document focuses on broad geographic interests (especially Europe as a security region), but does not identify specific goals in specific conflicts.

Analytical assessments indicate that the strategy has a new focus on “strategic stability”, which involves a quick end to existing conflicts in order to minimize risks to the security of Europe and the United States itself.

This gives time and space for Ukraine to rethink its role in the security order:

• Ukraine can become a partner in technological and defense cooperation, including regarding cheap, effective systems (drones, anti-aircraft defense, ISR and innovations) that meet new security requirements.
• It is important to be a subject, not an object, offering specific solutions for cooperation with the US and NATO, not just needing support.

NSS-2025 captures a reality in which automatic roles and unconditional guarantees no longer exist. The United States remains a strong ally, but acts within its own interests, unwilling to endlessly compensate for the weakness of others. For Ukraine, this is not a signal of the West’s retreat, but a clear line of responsibility: what exactly do we take on and what are we ready to answer for.

In this war, it is not just the front lines that are becoming increasingly important, but the decisions, budgets, and strategic frameworks within which those fronts exist. The winner is not the one who operates with value formulas, but the one who offers practical mechanisms of interaction.

A strong army, defense industry, and military technology are becoming an instrument of foreign policy, not just an element of defense.

Ukraine is faced with a choice: to remain a country on which decisions are made, or to become a party that shapes these decisions. This means moving from the logic of expectations to the logic of proposals: clear, pragmatic and mutually beneficial.

The American security strategy of 2025 does not provide ready-made answers for Ukraine, but clearly outlines the framework in which these answers will have to be sought. There is no room for fear or self-deception in this framework. Only a cold calculation and understanding of one’s own weight.

The world is entering a phase where wars are fought not only by force of arms, but also by force of decisions. And if Ukraine wants to keep and strengthen its place in this system, it will have to learn to act at this level. Not by declarations, but by partnerships built in one’s own interests.

Vlad Sobolevsky, president of the Snake Island Institute, former deputy commander of the 3rd Special Operations Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

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