“The Government has approved the main forecast macro indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2026-2028, which provide two scenarios.”, – WRITE: epravda.com.ua
This is specified in Resolution No. 946 From August 6 this year, Interfax-Ukraine reports.
According to the first growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) will be 4.5%next year, inflation is expected at 8.6%, and the second – GDP growth will be 2.4%and inflation – 9.9%.
An optimistic scenario involves accelerating GDP growth of up to 5% in 2027 and up to 5.7% in 2028, and inflation is expected to be up to 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively.
According to a less optimistic scenario, GDP will increase by 4.7%in 2027, and 2028 by 4.5%, while inflation will decrease to 9.7%and 7.5%.
The first scenario involves the presence of 13 million employed economic activities next year at the age of 15-70 years with an increase in this indicator to 13.2 million in two years, while in the second scenario, these figures are 0.2 million less.
According to the first scenario, the unemployment rate will increase from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027 and will decrease to 12.8% in 2028, while the second scenario provides for a gradual increase in unemployment from 12.6% to 13.1% in two years.
The nominal, inflation adjusted, the average monthly salary of employees in the first scenario will increase by 6.5-8.9% annually and by 4.6-5.1%-in the second scenario.
The resolution lacks information which of the scenarios is basic for the preparation of the state budget project for 2026.
Recall:
National Bank predicts Significant budget deficit in 2025 (22% of GDP) and its slow decline in 2026 (up to 19% of GDP), taking into account the significant defense needs.