“The agreement between Israel and Hamas: will the agreement fail There is a risk that the war in Gaza will continue. The signed cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas can only come into force on Monday. Israel’s government will only meet on Saturday night to vote on the deal.”, — write on: unn.ua
UNN collected the details of recent events and together with an expert analyzed what will happen next.
According to Israeli media, according to the agreement, Hamas and allied militant groups must release 33 Israeli hostages held in Gaza after the October 7, 2023 terrorist attacks. In return, Israel must release hundreds of Palestinians from prisons. Once in force, the agreement is expected to allow some civilians to return to northern Gaza, and humanitarian organizations to be able to deliver aid to the devastated areas.
It could be the first temporary ceasefire in Gaza in more than a year and only the second since the start of Israel’s massive military campaign against Hamas.
Disruption of agreements: what was the reason?
However, a few days after the preliminary approval of the agreement, the situation escalated. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Hamas made new demands at the “last minute” that contradict previous agreements.
“Hamas is creating a crisis at the last moment by violating the agreed terms of the agreement,” the Israeli government said in a statement. It also emphasized that the Cabinet will not meet to approve the deal until Hamas abandons attempts to make changes.
According to Israeli sources, the main controversy concerns the list of Palestinian prisoners to be released as part of the agreement. Hamas demands guarantees about specific individuals, but Israel insists on its own selection criteria. Despite this, negotiations are ongoing.
Israel strikes Gaza, a Hamas militant is eliminated
While the diplomatic disputes continued, the Israeli army continued operations in the Gaza Strip. On the night of January 16, one of the militants of the “Nuhba” special unit, Muhammed Hasham Zahedi Abu Ar-Rus, was eliminated. Israeli intelligence services believe he was involved in the attack on the Nova music festival on October 7, 2023, which killed hundreds of civilians.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also reported strikes on about 50 targets in Gaza. They included weapons depots, rocket launchers, and command posts of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The military emphasized that measures were taken to minimize civilian casualties before the strikes.
What’s next? Armistice or new escalation
According to the plan, Israel was to reduce the number of airstrikes on Gaza from January 17, and the first hostages were to be released on January 18. However, due to a delay in the coordination of documents, the process may be delayed by at least one day.
The Israeli Cabinet must formally approve the agreement before it can enter into force. However, there are pitfalls here too. Under Israeli law, opponents of the deal have the right to petition the Supreme Court within 24 hours. Because many government officials are religious Jews who observe Shabbat, the Cabinet postponed consideration of the agreement until the evening of January 18. This means that the final decision can be made only on Sunday, and the truce will start from Monday.
Why did the deal break down? Expert opinion
Political scientist Taras Zahorodnii also believes that the truce is currently in question.
Well, it is clear that they already had many such agreements, and not all of them were fulfilled, not all of them were fulfilled to the end. Therefore, it is not excluded that there will be further destruction of Hamas, since such an agreement in this case cannot be beneficial to Israel. An unfinished Hamas will not actually control the territory of Gaza, but will control Israel, which will create risks of new attacks for it. That is why there was no cessation of hostilities, and further attacks on Hamas are possible
In his opinion, the agreement can be concluded when Trump comes to power, because he needs the laurels of a peacemaker, not Biden, who is leaving office.
Let’s add
Although the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been formally agreed, its implementation remains in question. The new demands of Hamas and the bureaucratic procedures of the Israeli government became a stumbling block.
If a compromise is not found in the coming days, there is a risk that the war in Gaza will continue.