Systemic sugar crisis in the Russian Federation and Belarus: intelligence predicts price collapse in 2026

The record sugar beet harvest in Belarus – about 5 million tons – turned out to be a risk factor, not an advantage. The key export market, Russia, is already oversaturated with cheap sugar, and this imbalance is only intensifying. As reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, new production, old stocks, and imports from Belarus are putting pressure on prices, sharply worsening the economy for both farmers and processors, UNN reports.

DetailsAccording to intelligence, in 2025, sugar production in Russia will exceed 6.4 million tons – almost the same as last year. With domestic consumption at 5.6–5.7 million tons, imports of about 0.3 million tons, and stocks of 0.35 million tons, the country needs to export up to 1.5 million tons to avoid a collapse of the domestic market. Russia managed to sell such a volume abroad only once – in the 2019/2020 season. Under current conditions, this seems unlikely.

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The consequences are obvious. Sugar prices in Russia have gone down, destroying the profitability of the industry. If in 2024 average prices exceeded 51 thousand rubles per ton, then in October 2025 they fell to 42.2 thousand, and in early December remained 15% lower than last year’s level. This directly affects Belarusian suppliers as well. The external environment leaves no room for maneuver. World sugar prices are at a five-year low. The global market is again in surplus – 4.2 million tons, and the surplus will grow in the 2025/2026 season due to the activity of India and Thailand. At the same time, access to the white sugar market is strictly limited: importing countries protect their own producers 

Intelligence emphasizes that for Belarus, the situation is no less threatening. With a production of 650–660 thousand tons, the domestic market absorbs only slightly more than half. The rest traditionally goes to Russia and the post-Soviet countries – markets that are now themselves in a crisis of surplus.

After a relatively successful 2024, when sales and profits grew, in 2026 the sugar industry faces not a question of growth, but a question of survival. At current prices and structural constraints, 2026 will be a crisis year for the entire industry 

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