“The Russians are trying to surround Kupyansk: the ISW told about the risks and threats to the Suvorous troops expand the positions north of Kupyansk to displace the Armed Forces from the eastern bank of Oskol. The invaders plan a 6-9 monthly surgery from the city’s environment and forcing the river.”, – WRITE ON: Unn.ua
Details
It is noted that Russian troops are expanding their positions north of Kupyansk within the framework of long -term operational efforts aimed at displacing the Ukrainian forces from the eastern (left) bank of the Oskil River.
The occupiers have recently intensified offensive operations north of Kupyansk, in particular near a two -year -old, as part of a wider intensification in Kupyansk, Boriv and Liman directions
The Institute of War Study reports that geolocation, published on January 30 and 31, indicate that Russian troops recently advanced north of the two -year (north of Kupyansk and on the western bank of the Oskil River), to the southern outskirts of the western South -west of the two -year) and north along the west bank of the Oskil River northwest of Novomlinsk (northeast of the two -year).
Russian forces also use mechanized attacks to expand their speech north of Kupyansk
According to ISW, the units of the 6th All-Military Army of the Russian Federation (Leningrad Military District) play a leading role in Russian efforts to expand positions north of Kupyansk.
The pace of Russian offensive operations on this area of the front was generally much lower than somewhere in the east of Ukraine during most of 2024, and Russian units in the area were likely to rest and prepared for the beginning of a multi -year campaign from Kupyansk.
The Institute of War Study noted that the Russian military seems to have no significant reserves that could be directed to these efforts, but the Russian military command may be ready to relocate advanced units from other areas of the front to take advantage of any significant tactical advantages in the area of the two-year-Kupyansk.
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Parts of the Russian 1st Guards Army (Moscow Military District) also participate in Kupyansk’s environment and try to move east of Kupyansk and expand the Russian performance south of Kupyansk in the Kruglyakivka area, probably Prepare for the offensive south of Kupyansk, forcing the Oskil River and Provoy pressure.
The Russian military command demonstrated that it is ready to participate in operations that can last from six to nine months. It is likely to act on the assumption or knowledge that Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future
Russian troops are gradually working to displace the Ukrainian troops from the eastern bank of the Oskyl River from the winter of 2023-2024, and the Russian military command previously deprivated the Kupyansk-Borova-Lyman line in favor of other operational efforts in Ukraine.
Kupyansk’s surroundings will almost certainly be a multi-year effort that will require Russian troops to close the gap of 25-30 kilometers wide, as well as to force the Oskil River, to seize small settlements that occur on their journey, and to reflect Ukraine’s counterattack. The Russian command does not seem to be concerned with the speed or sequence of its promotion in Ukraine, probably because it believes that the war will continue until Russia has caused military defeat to Ukraine
ISW analysts remind that Putin has previously formulated the theory of “Victory”, which assumes that the Russian military will be able to continue gradual, creeping promotion in Ukraine to infinity, and has repeatedly stated that he was not interested in solving war on all conditions except those, except those which he dictates.
Putin’s command learns these statements and probably comes to a logical conclusion that Putin is not interested in the end of the war and intends to continue to fight until he reaches his goals in Ukraine, which are to overthrow the current Ukrainian authorities and a categorical destruction of the Ukrainian army
According to the Institute analysts, the ability of Russia to continue the slow surroundings of settlements instead of trying to conduct a quick mechanized maneuver that breaks the Ukrainian defense line and quickly achieves promptly significant successes, in medium -term and long term depends on the ability of the Russian Federation to supply a large number of personnel and material the means necessary to maintain these operations.
In addition, Russian troops also activate their efforts to close the Ukrainian “pocket” that remained west of Kurakhov.
Russian troops are likely to close or destroy the Ukrainian “pocket” west of Kurakhov, to release the Russian forces operating in the area, for offensive operations in other places, such as advancement to the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions with the direction of Pokrovskaya or the Great Novosilka, as was already evaluated by ISW
Key conclusions ISW for January 31:
- The United Kingdom, Finland and the Czech Republic have announced on January 31 to provide Ukraine with several packages of immediate and long -term military assistance.
- Russian troops are expanding their groups north of Kupyansk within the framework of long -term operational efforts aimed at displacing Ukrainian forces from the eastern (left) bank of the Oskil River.
- According to reports, the units of the 6th All-Military Army of the Russian Federation (Leningrad Military District) are headed by Russian efforts to expand positions north of Kupyansk.
- Parts of the 1st Guards Army of the Russian Federation (Moscow Military District) also participate in Kupyansk’s environment and try to move east from it and expand the Russian performance south of Kupyansk in the Kruglyakivka area, probably in order to prepare for the offensive South of Kupyansk, forcing the Oskyl River and Provoy pressure.
- Russian troops seem to develop and spread the method of offensive throughout the theater of combat operations, which is the slow cover of frontier cities and settlements on a scale sufficient to ensure that Russian troops can complete the operation before its climax.
- The Russian military command demonstrated that it is ready to participate in operations that can last from six to nine months. The Russian command is likely to work on the assumption or direct knowledge that Putin does not intend to finish the war in Ukraine in the near future.
- This Russian method of offensive leads to a slow operational maneuver on the battlefield, but such an environment requires considerable planning, forecasts, living strength and equipment and does not restore the rapid mechanized maneuver on the battlefield.
- Russian troops also activate their efforts to close the Ukrainian “pocket” that remained west of Kurakhov.
- The authorities of Moldova and Transnistria have agreed to accept the European Union package, which includes the financing of gas purchases for Transnistria, which further limits Russia’s economic impact on the pro -Russian self -proclaimed republic.
- Ukrainian troops struck the Russian oil refining plant in the Volgograd region against the background of continuing blows on the objects of Russian energy and defense industrial infrastructure.
- Russian troops advanced near Kupyansk, estuary, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kurakhov.
- Western and Ukrainian officials continue to report that the North Korean troops have departed from the leading positions in the Kursk region.
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