Russia will not budge from its conditions “not one iota”: ISW analysts assessed Putin’s plans

Russia declares that negotiations with Ukraine should be based exclusively on the conditions that were announced in Istanbul, and refuses any compromises, despite changes on the front and significant territorial gains of Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this in its report UNN.

Details

It is noted that a high-ranking Russian official reiterated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence that negotiations with Ukraine must be based on the same uncompromising demands he made before the full-scale invasion and at the time of Russia’s largest territorial gains, despite the fact that Ukraine has since liberated a large part of the territory.

The Speaker of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, Valentina Matvienko, said on December 24 that Russia is open to compromises in negotiations with Ukraine. At the same time, she emphasized that the conditions put forward during the negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022 remain unchanged

Matvienko stressed that Russia will not back down from these conditions “not even one iota”. In Istanbul, Russia demanded that Ukraine become a neutral state that would not be able to join NATO. Another requirement of the Russian Federation was to limit the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 85 thousand people, similar to the one imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles after the First World War.

Russia’s demands in Istanbul were largely more detailed versions of the demands Putin had made months before a full-scale invasion began in February 2022, including the “demilitarization” and neutrality of Ukraine

Matviyenko repeated Putin’s demands at the annual Direct Line television press conference on December 19. Likely, similar statements from high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation will be heard in the coming weeks for both domestic and foreign audiences, analysts note in the report.

ISW analysts note that the intensification of the rhetoric of Russian officials indicates Putin’s confidence in victory over Ukraine. “This remains unchanged, despite the significant defeats the Russian army has suffered since then,” the report says.

We will remind

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may have tasked the military with taking control of new territories in the East. An attack on well-defended cities such as Pokrovsk could slow down the pace of the Russian advance at a critical moment in the Kremlin’s “geopolitical victory.”