“It is noted that the end of hostilities poses an existential threat to Putin’s regime.”, — write: www.unian.ua
It is noted that the end of hostilities poses an existential threat to Putin’s regime.
In the second half of 2025, Russia will face a serious shortage of several categories of weapons / UNIAN collage, photo REUTERS, General Staff of the Armed ForcesThe narrative that the Russian Federation has the resources to win the war against Ukraine is not true. At the same time, Russia will not be able to end the war easily due to a number of economic reasons. The American magazine Foreign Policy writes about this with reference to the data of OSINT analysts.It is noted that Russia’s military economy is moving towards a dead end.
“Signs that official figures are masking serious economic hardship caused by both the war and sanctions are becoming increasingly apparent… The Kremlin will not be able to ramp up production fast enough to replace weapons at the rate at which they are being lost on the battlefield. Already now about half of all artillery shells used by Russia in Ukraine come from North Korean stockpiles.At some point in the second half of 2025, Russia will face a serious shortage of several categories of weapons,” the article says.
When Russia will reach the end of the road with each type of weaponry is unknown, but there is little the Kremlin can do to prevent that day, the magazine said.
In addition, it is indicated that not only will Russia not be able to wage war for a long time, it will also not be able to “make peace easily.”
“Huge military spending, which is unsustainable in the long term, artificially stimulates employment and growth. Almost all new jobs are military-related and do little to benefit the civilian economy, most sectors of which are having great difficulty finding labor…Scale of the post-war Russian recession will be even worse, as Russia’s civilian economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, has shrunk due to the war,” it is emphasized in publications
As Foreign Policy summarizes, Russia’s leaders face an unenviable set of dilemmas of their own making:
“Russia will not be able to continue waging the current war beyond the end of 2025, when it will begin to run out of key weapons systems. However, a peace agreement creates a different set of problems.”
As a result, the Kremlin will have to choose between three unpleasant options:
- cut the armed forces and the defense industry, triggering a recession that could threaten the regime;
- maintain high levels of defense spending and a bloated peacetime army that will strangle the Russian economy;
- use the army to obtain the economic resources needed to support it through new conquests.
“A cessation of full-scale hostilities in Ukraine will not end the West’s problems with Russia. Russia’s huge military sector encourages the Kremlin to use its military power to extract rents from neighboring states. The alternatives (demobilization and recession or endless funding of a bloated military and defense industry) pose existential threats to Putin’s regime No matter how Russia ends its current war, the country’s economic realities by themselves will create new forms of insecurity for Europe. Far-sighted politicians should focus on mitigating these future threats,” stated Foreign Policy.
It will be recalled that US President-elect Donald Trump said that the war in Ukraine “must be stopped” as soon as possible: “We will work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It must stop. Russia and Ukraine must stop.”
On the eve of this, Republican congressman Mike Waltz, who will become the national security adviser in the new administration of the White House, emphasized that Trump plans to organize negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and thus end the war.
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