“Experts of the Institute for the Study of War point out that Russia will face a shortage of weapons and material means for the war against Ukraine and will deepen its dependence on foreign partners in this matter.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
Source: ISW
Literally: “Russia is likely to face increasing problems in the production and procurement of materiel needed for Russian operations in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is likely to become increasingly dependent on foreign partners for its materiel needs.”
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Details: Analysts note that the Russian military relies heavily on restocking Soviet-era weapons and military equipment, especially armored vehicles, to maintain the pace of its offensive operations in Ukraine.
Literally: “The Russian authorities will likely have to further mobilize the Russian economy and defense industry and invest in capacity building if the Russian military is to maintain its current pace of operations in the medium to long term as Russia depletes its limited Soviet stockpiles, but it is unclear whether it can the Russian defense industry to produce enough products to withstand the high level of equipment losses suffered by the Russian forces in Ukraine, even under the condition of further economic mobilization.”
Details: ISW has previously assessed that Russia’s efforts to expand its military are unlikely to be sustainable in the medium to long term due to expected labor shortages and the impact of Western sanctions.
The head of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, drew attention to the role of North Korea as Russia’s most influential military ally.
He noted that deliveries of North Korean artillery ammunition to Russia have a direct and immediate impact on the dynamics of the war, with Ukrainian troops experiencing an increase in the pace of Russian operations already a few days after the arrival of artillery ammunition provided by North Korea.
As reported, North Korea delivered 4.8 million artillery pieces to Russia as of June 2024.
Literally: “North Korea’s support has previously allowed Russia to maintain a significant artillery advantage over Ukraine, and Russia has used these advantages to support successive offensive operations aimed at preventing Ukrainian forces from seizing the initiative.”
Details: ISW notes that Russian authorities have recently stepped up military cooperation with North Korea, as evidenced by the visit of Russian Security Council Chairman Sergei Shoigu to Pyongyang on September 13 and Putin’s visit in June 2024, when Putin signed an agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership with the president of North Korea Kim Jong-un.
According to experts, the deepening of Russia’s military partnership with North Korea is symbolic of the relations that Russia seeks to build with Iran, the People’s Republic of China and other desired partners.
Literally: “Russia will likely face a reduction in its stockpile of weapons and equipment and will struggle to make up for this shortfall unless it is able to circumvent Western sanctions on a large scale and significantly expand its engagement with foreign partners to obtain sufficient military equipment, components and dual-purpose goods.” .
ISW Key Findings for 15 September:
- Russia reportedly aims to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine by 2026, before likely mid- to long-term economic and military constraints begin to significantly impair Russia’s ability to sustain its military efforts in Ukraine.
- Russia will likely face increasing problems in producing and procuring the materiel needed for Russian operations in Ukraine, and the Kremlin will likely become increasingly dependent on foreign partners for its materiel needs.
- Advisor to the President of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kamyshyn, said on September 15 that Ukraine has started serial production of 155-mm artillery shells.
- The Ministry of Defense of Russia promptly responded to the outrage of ultranationalists surrounding the controversial death of two drone operators in Ukraine, stressing that the Russian authorities continue to pay considerable attention to the reaction of the ultranationalist community.
- Russian ultra-nationalist bloggers praised the Russian Defense Ministry’s response to the deaths of the drone operators, but expressed concern about the Defense Ministry’s ability to address the systemic problems that led to the deaths.
- The commander of the Chechen special forces “Akhmat” Apti Alaudinov intensified the Kremlin’s efforts to exchange prisoners of war for soldiers who defended the Kursk region from the Ukrainian invasion, while trying to appeal both to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and hard-line representatives of Chechen society.
- According to reports, Ukrainian troops have advanced in the Glushkov district of the Kursk region, while Russian troops have reportedly retaken territory in the area. Ukrainian troops continue offensive operations on the entire front line in the Kursk region, and Russian troops have advanced on this part of the front.
- In addition, the Russian invaders advanced near Svatovo, Siversk and Donetsk.
- The Russian authorities continue to strengthen coercive mechanisms to support the current cryptomobilization in order to avoid a wider mobilization.