Russia has lost twice as many people as Ukraine, but the advantage is on its side – NYT

The article is titled Ukraine Loses Fewer Soldiers Than Russia, But Still Loses the War (Ukraine Is Losing Fewer Soldiers Than Russia — but It’s Still Losing the War).

NYT notes that information about losses both in Ukraine and in the aggressor country is a state secret. Ukraine also restricted access to demographic data that could be used to assess losses.

With reference to experts, the newspaper writes that Ukraine could experience a full-scale war in almost three years “about half of Russia’s irreparable losses.”

Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi said that thanks to a much larger population and “more effective recruitment”, Russia is able to recover losses more effectively and gradually advance.

“While the fat man is losing weight, the thin man is dying,” he said.

The NYT mentioned two opaque sites that publish data on possible Ukrainian losses based on obituaries, obituaries, funeral announcements and similar information on the Web. Both sites claim that around 62,000 Ukrainian defenders have died since the start of the full-scale invasion. One of the sites, Lostarmour, suggests that the actual number of casualties may exceed 100,000. The newspaper reports that about ten volunteers are working on the construction of Lostarmour, most of whom are Russians and who, judging by everything, sympathize with the aggressor country and are trying to discredit Ukraine.

The person, who was identified by the NYT as the head of another UALosses project, said he was an IT specialist from a Western country and had no ties to Russia or Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has accused his project of spreading false information and probably periodically blocks the site, the article said. The Lostarmour site is blocked in Ukraine, like all Russian domains. The NYT conducted a statistical analysis of Lostarmour’s public records and concluded that 97% of the records are accurate with 95% confidence and a 5% margin of error.

Russian researchers and journalists using similar methods said they were able to confirm the liquidation by the end of November more than 150,000 Russian troops in Ukraine.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi announced in December that Ukraine had lost 43,000 servicemen.

In December, Ukrainian journalist and editor-in-chief of Censor.Net Yury Butusov stated with reference to sources in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that Ukraine lost 105,000 people, including 70,000 dead and 35,000 missing. The NYT, citing a military analyst familiar with Western governments’ estimates of Ukrainian losses, writes that Butusov’s data “are trustworthy.”

In 2023, US officials told the NYT that 70,000 defenders of Ukraine had died as of August.

The NYT also writes that, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, about 59,000 Ukrainians are considered missing, most of whom are military personnel. Butusov stated in December that 35,000 soldiers were considered missing.

Read also:

Pavlo Baev

Putin has nothing more to say? In what situation did Russia find itself?

According to analysts, the aggressor country loses a little less than two occupiers for every Ukrainian soldier, the article says. This ratio did not allow Ukraine to overcome Russia’s advantage in terms of population and recruitment, and Ukraine “loses the greater part of his smaller army.’

A military analyst familiar with Western estimates said there are now more than 400,000 Russian occupiers on the front lines and about 250 thousand defenders of Ukraineand “the gap between the armies is widening.”

Russia managed to rebuild and replenish the occupation army, using a population that is four times larger than the population of Ukraine, conducting conscription and recruiting criminals and debtors. North Korea also sent 11,000 troops to help the terrorist country in the Kursk region.

“Russia is losing more people. But every Ukrainian loss brings the Kremlin closer to victory,” the article says.