“Almost all the full -scale war, Ukrainian sociology showed a steady trend: most Ukrainians opposed peace and negotiations with Russia. Society was dominated by the thirst for fighting and winning. However, now the situation has changed, and radically. According to Socis sociological survey, 70.1% of Ukrainians are in favor of one or another format of termination of war with the Russian Federation. For continuing combat”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Almost all the time of the full -scale war Ukrainian sociology showed a steady trend: Most Ukrainians opposed peace and negotiations with Russia. Society was dominated by the thirst for fighting and winning. However, now the situation has changed, and radically. According to the company’s sociological survey Socisalready 70.1% Ukrainians are in favor of one or another format of termination of war with the Russian Federation. 24.9 is expressed for continuing hostilities%.
This study demonstrates a radical change in trends in public views, a true revolution in approaches: for the first time since the beginning of a full -scale invasion, sociology captures a stable majority that stands for peace and ending the war. However, there are several important issues before the survey itself, and most importantly, its “mystery”: the results of sociologists have received more than a month ago, but they have been shown to the general public only now. And not directly through publication of work on the site Socisand through the “drain” in the edition “Ukrainian Truth”.
What is the current opinion of Ukrainians on peace and war and why is this revolutionary change in social moods full of nuances and secret? Political observer Ua.news Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the question.
The steady majority is for peace
Sociology is difficult to call an exact science. However, it also does not entail humanitarian discipline. It is more something third: at the junction between accuracy and humanitarian approach. In Ukraine, sociology was often associated with commercial and political orders, and after the start of a full -scale war, it became even more difficult to conduct research for objective reasons: movement of the population, change of social executions, difficulty in shaping sampling, etc.
However, one in sociology is not to pick up: it perfectly demonstrates trends on changes in public opinion. That is, if specific figures may have certain questions (how a questionnaire and a selective set were formed, what methodology of research, what is the error, ETC), then the trends – almost never.
And it seems that a new steady trend has emerged in Ukraine: most are in favor of peace and demonstrates readiness for negotiations. What is evidenced by Socis – a well -known and reputable sociological company.
Thus, as of December-2024, 50.6% of those polled stated that they were in favor of “finding a compromise solution with the involvement of leaders of other countries to end the war.” Interestingly, this figure is constantly increasing: in October there were 49.4%, in September – 40.4%, as of May – 46.1%(decrease in September, most likely explained by the effect of Kursk operation of the Armed Forces), And in February – only 36.1%. That is, the total annual increase in the number of “pacifists” was almost 15%.
Another 19.5% of respondents in December 2024 advocated “suspension of hostilities and temporary freezing of conflict on the line of contact.” In October there were 17.8%, in September – 14.7%, in May – 10.4%, and as of February – only 8.2%. That is, in the year the number of fans of “frost” has increased more than twice.
If you make these figures together, the total 70.1% of Ukrainians are in the end of the war in one form or another. But for the continuation of the fighting, only 24.9%spoke. Of these, 14.7% want to fight for the border of 1991, and another 10.2% want to fight until the border entry on February 23, 2022 – before the Russian invasion.
It is interesting that in the year the number of those who advocated the “war to the borders of 1991” fell by 18.8%. But the number of respondents who want to fight only before the exit to the pre -war borders on February 23, 2022 did not change: in February there were 11%, and in December it became 10.2%. A 0.8% decrease can be attributed to a statistical error, as this number in no way affects the analysis and the overall result.
Since it is impossible to check the numbers of SOCIS directly – there are none on the official site – we resorted to an indirect attempt to verify the data. The new study shows the dynamics of mood change per year. In particular, in May 2024. UA.News has checked the analysis of sociologists for this month, it is available on the site. The given data is completely the same. This does not guarantee 100%reliability, but significantly increases the confidence in the public.
There are several conclusions from the figures above. The first is that in Ukraine really formed a stable trend and a public request for peace. This, by the way, was confirmed earlier: the KIIS survey in November showed a confident increase in the number of Ukrainians who stand for some concessions for peace.
And in October, the research of the authoritative international company Gallup showed 52% of respondents who would like to end the war. However, SOCIS figures with a 70% of the total result for peace already show not a simple majority, but a stable and apelation.
According to sociologists, the total number of “pacifists” increased by more than 26%in the year. At the same time, the number of respondents who chose the War to the Borders of 1991 decreased by 18.8%. Interestingly, this coincided with the almost complete disappearance of such rhetoric from the mouth of representatives of government in recent months. But some of those who advocate for the war before the border exit on 23.02.2022 did not change. It seems that this social group is the most rooted in their views and does not depend on public rhetoric in the media or the military-political situation.
Questions and nuances
Despite the revolution of released data, a certain “mystery” of Socis research is amazed. Let’s start with the fact that this work actually … does not exist. The official site of the sociological company did not publish its analysis. The last publication there in general concerns the socio-political situation of May 2024. Since then, the corresponding section has not been updated.
In principle, there is nothing strange here at first glance. Sociologists always work in two formats: public and non -public. And Socis is no exception. Often, research is ordered “on the table” and its data never get into the media. However, this time the information still came: because of the article in the UP, the author of which analyzed nothing but the beginning of the “new political season” in Ukraine.
And this is also a very indicative moment. The material states that the authorities actually receives a mandate from the people to peace talks. And that one should not expect any conditional “Maidan” or mass protests (especially during the martial law they are prohibited). After all, most Ukrainians are already in search of a peaceful solution, so the political leadership of the country can and should go in this direction. But, of course, in the face of security guarantees for Ukraine is an important point.
Interestingly, all years of UP war She made publications in a slightly different tone. The topic of materials has always been emphasized in the spirit of the passionary part of society and the rhetoric of power, which together opposed any negotiations and compromises with the aggressor. And now there is a sudden turn, which is supported by sociology from Socis – not officially published, namely “merged” because of the “Ukrainian truth”.
A few more interesting facts: the owner of the UP is the famous investment Bankir Tomash Fial. Political circles say that it is rather opposition to the current authorities and its course today. And the co -owner of Socis is Igor Grinov. He is characterized in a professional environment as one of the best political technologists of Ukraine, who also worked for a long time in the team of fifth President Petro Poroshenko.
And received his data on the moods of Ukrainians Socis in mid -December. It has been a month and a half since then. During this time, several things have occurred that have had a hundred percent influence on public opinion: the new and so far not too successful operation of defense forces in Kurshchyna, the inauguration of Donald Trump in the United States, the active peaceful rhetoric of his team and his team members, etc. So now the indicators in the survey could probably shift even more towards peaceful aspirations.
However, all this time sociologists have “kept” the information bomb. And they were published only now-in the same article where Kiril Budanov’s anxious prophecy was also mentioned when he allegedly said that if peaceful negotiations did not start in the summer 20125, the very fact of Ukraine’s existence will be in danger. Although the GUR has already officially denied these statements, the fact remains very indicative.
Expert opinions
We sought a comment to the sociologist, director of the Center for Sociological Research “Pulse” Sergey Nuzhdin. The expert is skeptical of socis data published. Also, in his opinion, until the study is officially published, it is more about rumors rather than real data.
“It is difficult for me to explain why there is no data on the site” Social “. There can be 101 reasons: from the fact that these data are not true to the fact that they could be fused to test the reaction of society. It can also be preparation for elections and pursuing the field … or, conversely, an attempt to compromise “Social” and its owners.
Regarding numbers. Until these data are officially published, they remain rumors that I, from a professional point of view, cannot comment. It may not be an all-Ukrainian study, but, for example, analysis of millionaires, and cannot be interpreted as representative of the country’s population. We do not know who we were interviewed and what method. In addition, the data presented by the UP do not have key indicators: the exact formulation of the question of how many respondents did not decide how many refused to answer, how many respondents were interviewed. It may have been a panel study that has its own specific interpretation, ”the sociologist notes.
Nuzhdin says that his sociological center does not have fresh data on peace talks or compromises. Therefore, it is difficult for him to evaluate the truthfulness of Socis information. However, the sociologist suggests that the proportion of those who are ready for talks and concessions for the sake of peace has indeed increased compared to the years.
“I ask not to distort UP data (Socis). No 70% for peace! The UP data presented by 50.6% of respondents is ready for negotiations. But this does not mean peace or end of war. We already had Istanbul negotiations, during which the war did not stop… If you believe the study, both sides want negotiations, but their whole diametrically opposite, and it is unlikely to be balanced.
As a sociologist, I do not like the formulation of the scenarios of the development of war with the addition of an alternative to “finding a compromise solution”. After all, “Searching for compromises” is not an end to the war, but an alternative that more matches “Do you think, start negotiations with Moscow?” They are not involved in the socialist, – summarized Sergei Nuzhdin.
But the political scientist, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Ruslan Bortnik In general, he draws attention to the other important indicators he saw in the study. In particular, on significant anti -ratings of President Vladimir Zelensky. This data was also “merged”, but already by NV.
The expert notes that the head of state, according to the SOCIS poll, is no longer an absolute leader in the sympathy of Ukrainians and would probably lose the election of a more rating candidate.
“The main thing here is that Vladimir Zelensky’s anti-ratings reached 50-60%. And having a two -level system of presidential elections – we understand that in the second round the key role is played not by ratings, but anti -ratings. And this means that it will be very difficult to win the second round of the President Zelensky – if possible. Especially against a strong competitor.
As for the other, the results of SOCIS confirm the similar results of Gallup and some Ukrainian companies, which also record for a long time that most Ukrainians are for the end of the war. But I note that the results are also important that most Ukrainians are not just “for the end of the war”, but they are also negotiating. Not just for freezing, but for reaching some compromises. For negotiations for compromise and ending the war as follows. This distinguishes the position “for negotiations” from simply “for the end of the war” by freezing, ” – explains the expert.
Bortnik has the impression that the publication of the UP, as connected with the foreign partners of Ukraine, is trying to embrace the Trump White House Mainstream today, which prepares a peaceful plan for Kiev and Moscow and clearly articulates this desire.
Summarizing, we can conclude that in all this situation there are too many strange nuances, matches and interesting facts. From them, some questions arise to what is happening. The answer to them may be as follows: in Ukraine, perhaps a new political season really begins. And unlike the previous three years, he has every chance of going under the flag of “struggle for peace” against the background of serious changes in the world situation.
If so, it is not surprising that political players came to life and began to carefully form a new agenda through the media and sociology. I would like to believe that in this case it is not only about changing rhetoric, but also about real changes on the way to a dreamy most Ukrainians of peace in our country.
Nikita Trachuk