Retail Sales, Core Spending Miss in May, Raising Growth Risks Ahead of Fed Decision

Retail Trade Slides While Nonstore and Food Services Provide Support Retail Trade Sales Mirrored the Headline Figure, Falling 0.9% in May. However, Nonstore Retailers-Primearily E-Commerce-Rose 8.3% from A Year Earlier, While Food Service and Drinking PLACES GAINED 5.3%. These Categories Remain Pockets of Strength, Supported by Ongoing Demand for Convenence and Leisure Spending. Still, The Decline in Both Total and Core Retail Sales Casts Doubt on Broader Consumer Resilience Heading Into the Summer.

Fed Policy in Spotlight as Sales Miss Raises Growth Risks This Report Arrives As the Federal Reserve Begins Ists Two-Day Meeting. Policymakers are expectioned to Hold Rats Steady, with A 99.9% Probability Already Priced In. However, The Weak Control Group – Reflected in the Core Retail Sales – Pressures the Fed’s Growth Outlook. With Q1 gdp already revised Lower and Consumer Spending Projected to Slow from 3.1% to 1.1% by Year-End, A Sustaned Cooling in Consumption Could Influkence The Tone of the Fed.

The Atlanta Fed’s Model Currently Projects A 2.1% Contraction in Q2 GDP. Today’s Weaker-Qan-Expected Sales Figures May Further Support That View, Particularly If Revisions Remain Negative.

Market Forecast: Bearish for Broad Retail, Fed Messaging May Increase Volatility The Downside Surprise in Both Headline and Core Sales Reinforces a Bearish Outlook On Retail and Consumer Discretionary Equities. Traditional Retailers and Physical-Store Chains Are Likely to Face Pressure, While Nonstore and Food Service Sectors Offer Selective Strength. Traders Should Prepare for Increasted Valativity Across Equities, Bonds, and Currencies As the Fed Responds to Deckling Consumer Momentum.