“Research shows that Polymarket is 90% accounting in predicting how wills will Occur One Month Out, and 94% Four Hours Before The Event Occurs.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
(Alex McCullough/Dune)
McULUGH Studied Polymarket’s Historical Data and Removed Markets with Probabilites Above 90% or Below 10% Aftercomes Were ALREADY KNOWN BUT NOT Yet. Accorging to a dune dashboard Summary.
Polymarket Slightly But Consistently Overestimates Event Probabilities Across Ranges, Potentilly Due to Biases Like AcquiesCence Bets, McCullough’s Research Found.
Longer-Term Markets, Ones that Ask Bettors to Consider An Event Far-Out, Look More Accurate Because they Include Many Outcomes that Clearly Unlikely, Making Presies Eas. Interview with Polymarket’s the Oracle Blog.
Mcullough gives the example of Gavin Newsom Become President (A Question With $ 54 Million in Volume) Durying the Last Election to Show that Longer-Term Polymarkets. Outcomes, Like Newsom Clearly not Winning, Which Boosts the Platform’s Accucy Numbers for TESE Long-Term Prescriptions.
In Contrast, Head-To-Hayad Sports Markets, WHICH HAVE FEWER EXTREME OUTCOMES SUCH AS Long-Shot Presidential Candidates, and A More Balanced Distribution, Present A Cleer, Present, Present. McCullough Found, Showing Notable Improvements in Accuracy As Events Unfold and Revealing Periodic Accuracy Spikes.
Sports is a growing sector for Polymarket, with Nearly $ 4.5 Billion in Collective Volume Wageered On the Outcomes of The NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League Finals Analytics.
McULUGHh’s Findings About of the AcCuracy of Polymarket Are Likely to be of Interest in Ottawa, WHERE Polymarket Shows that New Liberal Conservative Rival Pierre Poilievre, Even More What What Poll Aggregators Are Showing.
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