“Photo: wikipedia.org /gettyimages.com Despite the skepticism on the arrival of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on the negotiated process in the capital of Turkey, the world continues to prepare for this event. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has already stated that he was ready to come to Istanbul, US President Donald Trump also suggested that he could take part in the negotiations if there was Putin. […]”, – WRITE: Businessua.com.ua
Photo: wikipedia.org /gettyimages.com
Despite the skepticism on the arrival of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on the negotiated process in the capital of Turkey, the world continues to prepare for this event. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has already stated that he was ready to come to Istanbul, US President Donald Trump also suggested that he could take part in the negotiations if there was Putin. And the head of Turkey Recep Erdogan is ready to fully promote this process.
What to expect from this mix of expectations and reality, journalist Briefly about learned in political scientist, managing partner of the national anti -crisis group of Taras Zagorodny.
Putin wants to talk from the US behind Kiev’s back – Can a meeting in Istanbul be the beginning of a political peace process?
– It is unlikely that Putin is not going to go there. He just tried to deceive the world, stating that he was ready for negotiations in Istanbul.
Political scientist Taras Zagorodniy. Photo: FB Taras Zagorodniy
– Why?
– Because now, through consolidated support for the main leaders of Europe, it is Volodymyr Zelenskyy who dictates the conditions – ceasefire, and only then peace talks. Therefore, Putin does not want to talk to him. The Kremlin dictator wants to talk to Trump behind Kiev’s back. Moreover, the US Presidential Special Representative – Steve Witcoff is fully zombie Putin. Or he is ready to talk to China – and this is not a level for him.
And what can Putin say in these negotiations? Akhinea again to give the territories, the abandonment of NATO and disarmament of the Ukrainian army? But no one in the world is seriously perceived. Therefore, only his representatives, with whom Zelensky will not talk to Istanbul, can come to the meeting. He will send specially prepared people who will sit and listen to how they “compost” our brain. But even this is a great positive.
– In the disruption of negotiations?
– Yes, oddly enough. Zelensky fully turned the talk board. See: Putin said about the meeting on May 15 in Istanbul. Zelensky answered – we agree, Putin, come. There is no Putin. So, it is he who is to blame for the peaceful process, so the US and Europe – impose sanctions against Moscow, as promised. Such logic of Kiev, and our Western partners will be very difficult to resist their promises.
Territories and Army Reduction will not be discussed – Imagine that negotiations will still happen. And what could be the subject of these negotiations, what are the topics?
– Each of the parties would promote its agenda. Putin is the ultimatums about the concessions of the territories, the refusal of NATO and the removal of Zelensky. But now even the US does not require this from us. Ukraine would first demand an agreement on the 30-day ceasefire and then peace talks. Europeans support our conditions. Americans also propose to discuss the status of Zaporizhzhya NPP and Ukraine’s access to important waterways on the Dnieper and the Black Sea in the war zone.
-And if there are negotiations, how better would be Zelensky to behave, persistently or compliant?
– What does it mean “compliant” about what? The agreement on the 30-day ceasefire was agreed with the United States, with Europeans. But no concessions to the territories, the reduction of the army will not be discussed.
– Ukraine will not go to Putin’s ultimatum for peace. And her allies, European and American, can make such concessions?
– If they want to concede something, they do not have the levers to force Ukraine to leagues. How can they, for example, force Ukraine to leave Zaporozhye or Kherson? Disarm the army when the aggressor comes? It’s just impossible.
If they do not impose sanctions then Trump will lose all his authority in the world – However, Trump is “blowing into his dud.” It is threatened with ultimatum of Ukraine and Russia if they do not negotiate.
– It is so scary for Russia, not for Ukraine. Putin is needed that the Americans do not get out of the talks.
– Why?
– to show the legitimacy of their actions. Like, look – the US, Trump listen to us. And the special representative Steve Witkoff said that without the signature of Putin there could be no peace. In this way, the Russian dictator simply enjoys its false importance.
And Ukraine has to form its pressure levers on Russia. For example, to declare a blockade of the Novorossiysk port, where there are Russian combat and trade vessels. Block the airports of civilian transportation in the Russian Federation. And the fact that Trump invents something there is his problem, not ours.
– Will Europeans and Americans be imposed if Putin is talking?
– This will be their verification – you have stated that the sanctions will be, so, fulfill your promise. Now the whole world will see how the US and the European Union behaves. If they do not impose sanctions against Moscow – they will lose all their authority, and no Make America Great Again (“Let’s return the former grandeur”), according to Trump, will not go at all.
The Chinese will then say all over Asia: look, Trump can do nothing at all, and all his statements are an empty sound. Therefore, Volodymyr Zelenskyy does correctly that he constantly “moves his eyes” to Americans and Europeans to introduce these sanctions: “You promised, let’s force Putin.”
And Europeans also connect to the pressure on the Americans to impose sanctions against Moscow. The European Union is already talking to Russia as they had to speak for a long time – the language of ultimatum. Either you, Putin, do so and so, or you get a very painful blow to your economy in the form of sanctions.
Erdogan is not required the victory of – And what is the role of Turkish President Recep Erdogan in this process? He gave Istanbul as a platform for negotiations, what is his interest in this?
– Erdogan is a temporary ally of Kiev here, as his interests coincide with the interests of Ukraine. He does not need the victory of Russia because it claims influence throughout the Turkic world (Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, etc.), which has its own species and Turkey.
That is, there are the interests of Ankara as an important regional player who conflicts with the interests of Moscow. And Kiev must continue to use this contradiction for their own interests.
– Why Che executioners after the fifteenth day?
– I would not expect anything particularly. We should not put great hope for it. And we need to promote our conditions for us. Build rockets, block water and air Russian ports. It will be very painful for the Russians.
– Putin prepares a summer offensive on the front. So, is he not at all negotiating?
– Of course, he wants to fight to get Ukraine. He has not changed.
– And has resources to “get” Ukraine?
– No, of course. This is clear.
– Are we ready for this offensive?
– This is a question to the military. But I think they know everything perfectly.
Source: kp.ua
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