Political scientist Oleg Saakyan: Trump has no goal to finish war fairly

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The world and, first of all, Ukraine is still trying to evaluate and understand the importance of US refusal to supply some weapons, including missiles and shells. About this and about further cooperation between Ukraine and the USA journalist Briefly about talked to political scientist Oleg Saakyan.

Trump is absolutely unpredictable in his decisions – What does Trump’s refusal to supply missiles and shells in Ukraine mean in political terms?

Political scientist Oleg Saakyan. Photo: FB Oleg Saakyan

– first: despite how European leaders would not be stratified at NATO summit, which would not happen with good negotiations with Ukraine, Trump remains absolutely unpredictable in his decisions.
Second, this is that the position on restriction of weapons to Ukraine is at least for the third time in the Pentagon. The intrigue is whether it is Trump Personally, whether it is the activity of the Pentagon Secretary of Pentagon Hexet, which became possible due to the Trump atmosphere in the US administration.
– The New York Times wrote that America is coming out of war in our country, referring to her efforts to support Kiev. Is it so or not yet?

– I think that it is too early to say that the US is coming out of Ukraine’s support process. You need to see how this situation will develop further. If Trump really goes to confirm the storage of weapons of Kiev for a long time, it will mean that this is the position of Trump’s administration. However, we now see that they are denied, giving only general comments that it can indicate that the administration does not have such a decision, and now, having received a whole storm of negative feedback from both Europe and the US, can withdraw it.

– Why is Trump in general, is it all the same idea of ​​”Fix” – to force Ukraine to peace? There are no missiles – there is no way to defend yourself, which means that you need to go to humiliating peace with Russia?

-He wants to deal with Putin and is therefore ready to take any steps to reach this agreement. Ukraine is just a problem for him. He does not perceive Ukraine as a self -sufficient partner. He has no goal-to complete the Russian-Ukrainian war fairly. And his main goal is to negotiate with the Russians.

Trump seeks to make money from cooperation with Russia – And what does he want to negotiate with them?

– The nature of Trump’s desire is multilateral. First, psychologically, he needs recognition from the greatest “gangster of the world”-Russia, and this is his personal desire. The second is the great economic opportunities, as it seems to him, from cooperation with Moscow, although it does not correspond to reality. And thirdly, the act of agreement is important to him, which is an element of his confrontation with China. In order to drag Russia into its side in a possible political conflict with this country.

– Trump’s decision has caused great indignation both in America itself and in Europe. It turns out that he did not agree with either the State Department or Congress. Will intra -party and parliamentary position in Congress, the position of Europe that fully supports Ukraine, to force Trump to give up such a step?

– It is possible, and they can achieve the result. I do not think it will be a high level and large -scale support, but at least for critical positions, support and some deliveries will remain. I think it’s real.

– In the United States, it is justified that not all types of weapons have ceased to come from the United States to Ukraine, and in Kiev they say the opposite. What is the “swing”?

– Apparently, it is simply an intra -American institutional inconsistency or an effort to let out information smoke now to cover its unfriendly steps against Ukraine. Depending on the further steps of the White House, we will be able to see either the first or the second.

– Now everyone is waiting for the next, third round of negotiations between Ukraine, Russia with the participation of the United States. They will happen and what can be said there?

– Such negotiations can take place, but not the fact that with the participation of the United States, but on the agenda will be the same – humanitarian exchange, mutual requirements and ultimatums. But I do not see any chances that these negotiations will lead to something desired. Actually, all this is nothing but imitation of the negotiation process by Russia.

It will be very difficult to defend yourself without US Armed Forces weapons. Photo: FB 10th Army Air & Missile Defense Command

US President will try to privatize any success in the negotiation process – That is, there will be no ceasefire?

– I am skeptical about some real results of these negotiations.

– Whose side will Donald Trump take them?

– I suspect that it will not directly affect any of the parties because of unwillingness to press on Russia and the inability to press seriously on Ukraine. But he will try to privatize any result, and if it is not, then artificially information-to create some mythical success. This is what he did before is what he did about the escalation in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.

– Trump had another telephone conversation with Putin. It seems that the US president is fascinated by the Russian dictator?

– It’s not about fascinating. Trump wants to negotiate with Putin, and he is, accordingly, on the hook of this interest. And I do not think that some serious changes will be based on the results of the conversation both in the direction of intensification and towards the weakening of this dependence.

– A telephone conversation and Zelensky with Trump are also planned. Will our President persuade him to restore weapons? What arguments should he use?

– It is unlikely that Trump can be convinced of something, and even more so that it corresponds to his actions, because he often has his own words differently with his actions. In this case, it is necessary not to persuade Trump, but to create a narrow corridor for him, so that it is profitable to support Ukraine and it is extremely unprofitable not to do so.

Now the relations between the US and Ukraine are “pull-pushes” – Can we now count at least on US political support?

– I do not think that the United States in these negotiations are on the side of Ukraine as allies Rather Trump’s position is such that they are a mediator. And if you say figuratively, Trump is constantly reminiscent of a player who does not sit on a poker table, but simply runs around him and tells whom the cards.

– And Europe will be able to replace the United States in supply of weapons for Ukraine and in political pressure on Russia?

– In the supply of weapons quantitatively – no, but they can asymmetrically help Ukraine to compensate for the needs that Americans have closed to Ukraine. For example, one thing is a patriot air defense systems and missiles to them that Europe cannot supply us. But it can supply us with other means of damage to ballistic missiles. This can be at the expense of new aircraft equipped with larger-range air-land missiles that can be given to Ukraine. It is in this section that in Europe it is possible to put a shoulder in Ukraine. It will also continue the pressure on Russia and will not reduce it, despite the excess of Orban or Fitzo.

– Does all this mean that the US is no longer our ally?

– Now they are only a partner with their very confused Trump interests.

– What to expect Ukraine from the United States now?

-Exactly the same level of relations that is now-“pull-pushes” if Trump does not change his position. And it is not the fact that he is about to change something. Now American-Ukrainian relations are hostages of individual mood and approaches of the current American president.

– But he recently said that he had given two weeks to respond to increased Russian aggression. And what next?

– He has repeatedly gave Putin for two weeks, and the cart is now there.

Source: kp.ua