““Perhaps entering the final phase.” The NYT announced the scenarios of the end of the war in Ukraine and what they can agree on December 16, 14:03 Share: Ukrainian defenders fire on the enemy in the Eastern direction (Photo: OSUV Khortytsia / Telegram) The war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine may be moving in the final stage and a peace deal seems more likely than ever. This is the opinion in the publication for The New York”, — write on: ua.news
Ukrainian defenders fire at the enemy in the Eastern direction (Photo: OSUV Khortytsia / Telegram)
Russia’s war against Ukraine may be entering its final stages, and a peace deal seems more likely than ever.
This opinion was expressed by Rajan Menon, a political scientist, analyst and senior researcher at the Salzman Institute for War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, in an article for The New York Times, analyzing the possible agreements that will be reached in the final stage of the war.
Menon is confident that an agreement will be reached and “it’s time to plan for the post-war phase,” since Ukraine’s neighbor will still be Russia, which may attack again. According to the analyst, there are a number of possible scenarios for Ukraine’s future security.
The author of the publication emphasizes that Ukraine’s hopes for NATO membership will probably remain unfulfilled.
At the same time, an alternative may be a coalition of states ready to guarantee Ukraine’s security. However, the analyst is convinced, the problem is that Ukraine will want the US to be among the guarantor countries, while at the same time US President-elect Donald Trump wants to end the war without making any promises to protect Ukraine. He also seeks to reduce America’s security obligations in Europe in general and is unlikely to sign such a treaty.
The analyst points out that the priority for the US will be the Asia-Pacific region to contain China, and the security of Ukraine will always be more important for Europeans than for Americans. Therefore, it should be expected that the military role of the US in Europe will decrease and the Europeans will have to take on most of the burden of ensuring their defense.
“Perhaps even the primary responsibility for the defense of Ukraine,” Menon writes, recalling discussions about the possibility of deploying the troops of some European countries in post-war Ukraine.
Another possible model is “armed neutrality.” The scenario involves Russia’s promise not to attack Ukraine, and Kyiv, in turn, will renounce NATO membership and the placement of foreign troops and weapons on its territory. Menon emphasizes that such a course of events will make Ukraine more vulnerable compared to other solutions.
“Ukraine cannot rely on the Russian promise of non-aggression and must strengthen its security as much as possible if the result is armed neutrality,” Rajan Menon emphasizes.
The country should reject any restrictions on the size of its army, and Europe, which trains Ukrainian fighters and invests in the defense industry, can do more on these fronts.
Ukraine, Menon writes, has demonstrated that it is a formidable opponent, and if its battle-tested army can be made stronger and better equipped, Russia will have to contend with a much stronger opponent.
The end of the war may be near, but, the analyst is convinced, for a lasting peace, and not a freeze, after which Russia will attack again, “what happens next is important.”
It is possible to send NATO troops to Ukraine – what is known
After the conference in support of Ukraine held in Paris on February 26, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Ukraine’s Western allies will create a coalition to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with long-range weapons, and in the future the sending of Western military personnel to Ukraine cannot be ruled out.
A number of NATO countries, in response to Macron’s statements, publicly rejected the idea of sending troops to Ukraine. Among them, in particular, are Poland, the USA, Germany, the Czech Republic, Canada and Great Britain.
As Le Monde reported, discussions about sending troops resumed in November 2024 after the victory of US President Donald Trump.
On December 3, RFE/RL, citing a high-ranking NATO representative who wished to remain anonymous, reported that France and Great Britain are discussing possible options for guaranteeing Ukraine’s security in the event of peace talks with Russia.
One of these options is the deployment of troops from both countries along the demarcation line to monitor compliance with the ceasefire.
On December 12, the publication Rzeczpospolita disclosed the details of a possible peacekeeping mission to protect Ukraine, which was proposed by France. The essence of the proposal is the creation of a peacekeeping mission that would guarantee that the Kremlin would not violate a possible ceasefire and the established demarcation line in the future.
The mission may consist of five brigades — that’s about 40,000 soldiers. Poland could take command of one of them.