“The forced departure of millions of Ukrainians abroad through the war and the general uncertainty became one of the most pressing problems for the country. This has led to a serious demographic crisis that experts are talking about. Already today, Ukraine is on “demographic abyss”, and this challenge is becoming more and more threatening to the state and the future of the people. And the question of returning at least part of the citizens home”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
The forced departure of millions of Ukrainians abroad through the war and the general uncertainty became one of the most pressing problems for the country. This has led to a serious demographic crisis that experts talk about inThis is more often. Already today, Ukraine is on “demographic abyss”, and this challenge is becoming more and more threatening to the state and the future of the people. And the issue of returning at least some of the citizens home turns into a fundamental call for the government.
In this context nInformation has emerged that Cabinet Allegedly preparing a financial promotion program for citizens who will return to Ukraine. They said it was about “millions of payments”. Later This news is officially denied – This is an important point.
ANDLee herself by itself The idea is at least a certain interest. Because, in fact, a Why not? Do we have such a large selection of options?
Why pay payments can become Although morally contradictory but in general positive initiative It is from the point of view of the state and is there any economic expediency in this? Political observer Ua.news Nikita Trachuk Together with expert experts, he understood the question.
Demography as a key threat
The war and its demographic crisis is a key threat to the physical existence of Ukrainians. Yes, not Ukraine as a state, but Ukrainians as its indigenous population. After all, the state can exist further, and someone will live in it. The main question is who?
Unfortunately, history knows many examples of peoples who have disappeared simply by dissolving her events. From the Sumerians or Aztecs to the majestic Roman Empire or the Mayan empire, not that individual peoples, but whole civilizations, disappeared when they were lost to reproduce themselves. Who now remembers the Minois or the Khmer Empire, except for historians who study the ancient world? And once these were great peoples and advanced states of his time.
Ukraine today faces a similar challenge. We currently have a record mortality rate and fertility anti -record over the last 300 (!) Years. And this is not someone’s opinion or assumption, but data of the Ministry of Social Policy. Mass emigration (millions and millions of people who went), record low birth rates and the same record mortality, including constant death in the war – all this creates the effect of a “demographic abyss”, which is very difficult to get out of which.
It is important to understand that the loss of millions of citizens in Ukraine is not just an abstract decrease in population. It is the loss of invaluable human capital, loss of labor, women of reproductive age, decrease in consumption, fall in tax revenues, etc. As a result, the actual “disinfection” of the state. That is why demography is a key threat: because without people there is no point in either the state or the war for it. Because in such a logic, why fight for the land, on which it will simply not remain its inhabitants?
How much will the return program of Ukrainians
In the news of payments for the return, which was subsequently denied, it was about the amounts in “millions of hryvnias” for those citizens who will decide to come to Ukraine again. Imagine that every Ukrainian who will return will receive a million. This is about $ 25,000 according to the current NBU rate.
How big is this amount – the issue is debatable. On the one hand, it is not too space money worldwide. But for many Ukrainians, these are considerable money that could help a lot of life.
However, it is important here: this is rarely thought of, but the state has already invested much more. Education, medicine, social protection, salaries in the public sector, etc. – during the years of human life, it spends tens, and sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars. If a person emigrates, these investments are lost forever, as if they were never.
Now let’s look at the situation on the country. If at least a million people return to Ukraine, it will be a big victory. As part of a hypothetical payroll program, it will require $ 25 billion. This is a huge amount, but for comparison: only military expenses of Ukraine for 2025 will exceed $ 49 billion. We also do not forget that during the war, Kyiv received hundreds of billions of international partners in one form or another.
So the question is: if we are able to find tremendous funds for war and everything that is connected with it, why not find much less money in the future, but already for the restoration of human capital? That is, the good, peaceful goals of development and strengthening of the country. This may sound utopian, but if you think about it, there is nothing impossible and impossible here.
In addition, Ukraine is not a unique country in this regard. Financial incentives for the return of citizens to their homeland are not a new idea in the world. Other states have already implemented similar programs.
For example, Israel Since its inception, he has actively supported the repatriation (Alia) of Jews from all over the world. They received financial assistance, housing, tax benefits, employment and education support, etc. This allowed the country to increase the population very quickly and strengthen the economy.
Germany In the 1990s, she paid compensation to ethnic Germans, who returned from the post-Soviet countries to their historical homeland. Countries such as Canada and Australia At one time, financial incentives were used to attract migrants, because they were aware that people were the main value of the state. Similar actions did and Taiwan. Ukraine could adapt these approaches to its conditions.
Of course, such a potential program will require considerable funds. In addition, abuse is possible: Ukrainians are intricate, and there are risks that individual citizens will go specifically to return and get money. It should also be understood that a large part of society can negatively perceive this initiative, quite rightly believing that these funds should be directed to other needs, not returning those who went voluntarily and whom no one from the country of force has been expelled.
However, you need to be aware that even full ruins can be rebuilt. And most importantly, the state is losing irreversibly – these are people. If we consider the issue not emotionally, but pragmatically (as the governments of developed countries), then the losses from emigration are calculated in hundreds of billions, and potentially – in trillions of dollars. In such a situation to pay D A billions of billions to restore potential trillions is issued by a reasonable investment if you are guided by the banal “calculator method”.
Expert opinions
Economic experts in this matter are generally quite skeptical. In particular, economist Yuri Gavrilechko He believes that there is nothing to discuss here.
“We regularly have messages whose fantasticity is not even in doubt by media or consumers of information. It’s very sorry, but it is our reality. The statement … The alleged preparation of the Government Program for payment of one million hryvnias to those who will return from abroad to Ukraine after the war, spread very quickly and responded quite promptly … No, not the government, but the center of counteraction to the NSDC, which is not legal at all. Accordingly, there is nothing to discuss, because we are dealing with a classic version of a multilateral hippe on the next “sphere of horse in vacuum”.
As for the assumption itself, it is simply meaningless, because there are 6-8 million Ukrainians who left from here during the war. If everyone pays a million hryvnias, then it will require 6-8 trillion hryvnias! These are 3-4 state budgets of Ukraine! There is no money and will not be on such a program. And if they have a miracle, then the efficiency of their use through distribution is only negative, and the consequences can have a solid discord and stratification of society, ”Yuri Gavrilechko summarized.
Candidate of Economic Sciences with 10 years of experience in NBU Vadim Orphan He also does not see in the potential introduction of such a program of economic expediency. In his opinion, it is about populism, not supported by real calculations.
“I do not see the economic expediency in this. First, there is no money for it, it is pure populism. Secondly, let’s investigate the socio-economic scale of the problem. Now, according to Ukrainian sociologists on November-2024, there are 5.2 million Ukrainians abroad. Of these, 3.7 million left the Western border to the EU countries. And in the aggressor countries (Russian and Belarus) there are 1.3 million citizens. Everyone forgets about those who are in aggressors. How to return them? How to communicate with them? How will they affect the economy? And these are the same citizens of Ukraine, they remain them, ”the expert says.
The orphan says that there are now four clusters of migrants. They plan to return home less than half.
“Somewhere 28% do not tear with Ukraine, most of them will return. There are still about 25% of migrant workers. Some left before the war. They have economic incentives to stay and build a career in another country. Further classic refugees, 22% are women and children. They adapt and live in a new environment, they are more likely to settle abroad. And another 26% are people from the war zone. This part is more inclined to return home. This is the sociology. Less than half plan to return. People want to return only if there is safety, work and accessible housing. Safety and work in Ukraine – without comments. To buy an apartment is also almost unrealistic in the current conditions, ”the economist explains.
The orphan believes that if they created a special program that would provide funds for the purchase of housing for those who need it, it would be another matter. But politics is just so “distributing money” to nothing.
“A million hryvnias will not win here and will not be an advantage. An effective incentive for return is a complete change in the social environment. There must be trust in the state, there should be an organization of life in society. Here, if the state prove the real concern and changes in the state government that there are common sense, then people will start returning. It is my opinion, ”Vadim summarized.
Summing up, you can make the following summary: today such an initiative seems utopian, and for many one hundred percent will seem unacceptable. The state has many challenges, and there is no serious financial incentive for the “returns”.
However, if Ukraine wants to keep itself, you need to think about how to return at least some of its citizens. In doing so, it should be done not by threats or sanctions, but through positive incentives.
What they will be – the issue is debatable. But one thing is clear: if the state does not start fighting for its citizens, in the future it will lose them forever.
Nikita Trachuk