“Oil prices fall amid market assessment of potential Russian-Ukrainian peace talksOil prices fell amid discussions of possible trilateral talks involving Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington on ending the war in Ukraine. This could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil.
”, — write: unn.ua
DetailsBy 06:50 GMT (09:50 Kyiv time), Brent crude futures fell 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.28 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for September delivery, which expire on Wednesday, fell 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $63.10 a barrel. The more active October WTI contract fell 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $62.40 a barrel.
Prices rose by about 1% in the previous session.
After talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a group of European allies at the White House on Monday, US President Donald Trump announced on social media that he had called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and initiated preparations for a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, to be followed by a trilateral summit of the three presidents.
“Oil prices largely reflect the outcomes of recent meetings between Trump and Putin, as well as Trump and Zelenskyy, and while a direct peace agreement or ceasefire does not seem to be on the cards, some progress has already been made, and the likelihood of further escalation or increased sanctions against Russia by the US or Europe is perhaps ruled out for now,” said Suvro Sarkar, lead energy analyst at DBS Bank.
“Trump’s statements regarding secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil have also softened… which would otherwise have created a risk of disruptions to global oil supplies. Therefore, we believe that geopolitical risks to the oil market have slightly decreased this week,” the expert noted.
Zelenskyy called his direct talks with Trump “very good” and said they discussed the need for US security guarantees for Ukraine. Trump confirmed that the US is ready to provide such guarantees, although the extent is not yet clear.
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Trump is pushing for a swift end to Europe’s deadliest war in 80 years, but Kyiv and its allies fear he may try to impose a deal on Russia’s terms, the publication notes.
“An outcome that leads to de-escalation and the removal of threats of additional tariffs or sanctions would drive oil prices down to a mid-target of $58 a barrel for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, in his note.
“An outcome that allows the US to pressure Russia with broader additional tariffs against Russian oil consumers (similar to those India currently faces) would undoubtedly push oil prices to the highs seen a few weeks ago,” Melek said.
Two weeks ago, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods as punishment for India’s continued import of Russian oil. New Delhi accused the US of double standards regarding its particular focus on Russian oil imports, calling the tariffs unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable.
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