“National Bank gave a forecast when Ukrainian refugees will start returning to UkraineThe National Bank of Ukraine expects Ukrainian migrants to start gradually returning from 2027, but the speed of this process will
depend on security risks. Until 2027, an outflow of migrants is predicted, and from 2027, a net return of about 100,000 people is
expected.
”, — write: unn.ua
This is stated in the National Bank’s inflation report for July, UNN reports.
Details
The gradual return of Ukrainian migrants is expected to begin before the end of the forecast horizon, but the speed of return migration will depend on security risks
It is noted that the persistence of high security risks, including Russian shelling of the entire territory of Ukraine and terrorist attacks against civilians, caused a moderate outflow of migrants abroad. The adaptation of Ukrainians to life abroad also increased. The EU extended the temporary protection regime for Ukrainian migrants until March 2027.
After that, EU countries must determine other legal status regimes for Ukrainians who will remain in these countries, in addition to temporary protection, or regimes for their return home.
Specific decisions will depend primarily on the governments of the respective countries (the issue of migrants is already part of political discussions during elections in a number of countries), and will also take into account the degree of adaptation of Ukrainians – the availability of work, tax payments, education in local educational institutions, etc.
The extension of stay in the EU and/or the transition to permanent residence regimes will most likely hinder the active return of migrants within the forecast horizon.
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Full return to Ukraine from 2027The National Bank forecasts that 200,000 people will leave Ukraine annually in 2025 and 2026. A net return is expected only in 2027 – approximately 100,000 people.
Given the slow normalization of economic conditions, estimates of migration flows in the coming years have been worsened. At the same time, assumptions for 2025 remain unchanged: a net outflow of about 0.2 million people abroad is expected. It is assumed that in 2026 the outflow of migrants will continue at similar rates to this year (about 0.2 million people), while the April forecast predicted the return of 0.2 million people. Net return will begin only in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, in the previous forecast – 0.5 million people). The total number of migrants has been reduced in accordance with the updated UN methodology
The National Bank notes that prolonged migration outflow and slow return of migrants will lead to a persistent labor shortage and its significant unevenness by type of activity and region.
This will hinder economic recovery and stimulate further wage increases at higher rates than productivity growth, which will intensify inflationary pressure.
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Conditions for increased migration outflowThe National Bank also notes that the risks of increased combat activity and/or intensity of shelling of rear regions, occupation of new territories, or a significantly longer duration of high security risks remain significant. In case of realization of such risks, the migration outflow will intensify.
A more active policy of recipient countries’ governments to retain Ukrainians, especially those employed in the labor market, is also a negative risk for the migration forecast. The realization of these risks will lead to a greater labor shortage and a reduction in the number of domestic consumers with corresponding worse consequences for GDP and inflation. At the same time, rapid normalization of economic conditions, rapid increase in investments in infrastructure restoration and production capacities with corresponding job creation, as well as active government efforts regarding campaigns to return migrants can revive the return of Ukrainians and mitigate the labor shortage
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