Money promises to give, and weapons are not enough: will Europe be able to replace the US in helping Ukraine

Photo: Gettyimages.com

Instead of the promised peace plan, Donald Trump began to blackmail Ukraine, inclining us to accept all the requirements of Russia. In case oflanguages-threatens to reduce, and even completely stop any assistance to our country. Trump openly calls on the entire burden of assistance to the EU countries. Briefly about – Whether Europe can replace America in this case.

Money in Europe is enough The European Union has already stated that they are ready to take a leading role in supporting Ukraine if they refuse to do so. European assistance is generally more significant than they think, and is almost equal to US support. European countries have tremendous money assets, as four countries (Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy) are among the dozens of countries with the largest GDP.

“Europe as a whole is clearly ahead of the United States in terms of assistance to Ukraine. In total, Europe has allocated 70 billion euros of financial and humanitarian aid, as well as 62 billion euros of military aid, while the United States – 64 billion military and 50 billion financial and humanitarian aid, ”the German Institute of World Economy Kili reads.

Analysts say that the role of the United States in support of Ukraine began to decline in the second half of 2023, when Congress blocked new help packages for nine months. Therefore, European countries have gradually improved coordination and introduced common procurement mechanisms.

Trillions for the next 10 years According to the British Institute of Global Changes Tony Blair, Europe has the opportunity to assist Ukraine. This is an increase in military assistance by 40 billion euros annually. The next step is to optimize defense budgets. If NATO European countries increase defensive costs to 2% of the domestic gross product (GDP), it will give 30 billion euros additional resources.

In addition, there is such a significant asset for increasing assistance to Ukraine as the use of frozen Russian assets. The accounts in Europe have blocked 215 billion euros of Russian money. The use of their interest will provide Ukraine with a plus of 10 billion euros annually. And in addition, Europe can continue to invest in the Ukrainian defense industry.

In general, according to the calculations of the analytical agency Bloomberg Economics, the protection of Ukraine and the expansion of its own armed forces can cost the largest European countries an additional 3.1 trl. euro over the next ten years.

The restoration of the Ukrainian army will cost about 175 billion over ten years, depending on its wealth at the time of peace and what territory it will need to be protected. The 40,000 peacekeeping forces will cost about 30 billion in the same period. And when peaceful agreements, Ukraine will still need to spend approximately 230 billion euros for the reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure damaged during the war,

With a weapon will be harder The armament of the case is a little different. After all, practically all weapons are made to order or their own Ministry of Defense or Ministries of Defense of other countries, and none of the manufacturers has no warehouses where weapons are accumulated.

Therefore, the military-analytical edition of Defense Express concludes that if the US is stopped by military assistance to Ukraine, Europe will be able to cover this marriage only partially.

Currently, more than 30% of weapons used by Ukraine’s defense forces are coming from the United States. And, for example, spare parts and ammunition for BMP Bradley Ukraine can get exclusively from Americans.

“Moreover, there are things that just cannot be replaced. For example, the supply of Patriot missiles are only possible from the United States because they are not produced in Europe yet. There is also no answer to the question where, except the US, to take missiles to NASAMS, and with them to the F-16 because it is AIM-9 and AIM-120. In Europe, they do not produce missiles at all, ”the newspaper writes.

Other positions can only be compensated by Europe partially. For example, artillery shells are 155mm, which requires at least 1 million a year. And there are no cassette ammunition in Europe at all.

The production of military equipment in Europe seems to be well established, but largely depends on the American components. This applies to both armored vehicles and aviation. Thus, if the United States raises the question: either weapons for Ukraine will buy Europe or there will be no supply – European countries will have enough space for maneuver.

We will not receive new Patriot systems, and most importantly, we will not receive missiles. Photo: bundeswehr.de

Next will be more expensive If Europe does not support Ukraine now, the cost of safety in the future will be much higher. For this purpose it is worth mentioning examples of spending countries in the defense sector compared to the times of the Cold War. At that time, the UK spent 5% of GDP on defense, and the current level of expenditures of NATO European countries is only 2.1%.

During the broadcast on Bloomberg Television, Lithuanian Defense Minister Sakalien said that “the realization that the United States would not defend Europe (and Ukraine.

“We have to spend money on defense rapidly, and a lot, hundreds of billions should be spent immediately. We all have to act quickly, including Germany, ”she said.

The expert’s opinion

Elijah Kusa, Expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future:

– Europe will not be able to replace US help at once. If in finances it is still possible, for example, at the expense of frozen Russian assets, then military assistance will be problematic. They just have so much weapons.

But it is good that they will not reduce assistance to us in the about- and medium term. The hope of this is the statements of European leaders – President Macron, Prime Minister Older, Chancellor Scholz and others. And most importantly, they all do not perceive US President Trump’s approval position on Russia. Because, finally, they realized that this country is threatening the entire European continent, and will continue to emerge from this axiom. And this is very good for Ukraine that they do not see our country outside the security of the whole of Europe.

Source: kp.ua