Military expert Alexander Kovalenko: The enemy’s summer offensive has already begun

Photo: FB Armed Forces of Ukraine

Apparently, all the statements about peace talks on Putin’s side are nothing more than a new big lies of the Russian dictator. Instead, intelligence shows that the Kremlin’s master is preparing for a large summer offensive all over the front line and even from Belarus. What should we be preparing in the face of this threat, Briefly about tells Military expert Alexander Kovalenko.

The main blow of the Russians will be in the east – In view of everything, Putin’s peace negotiations are this Lies, but in fact it is preparing for a large -scale offensive. Is that so?

Military expert Alexander Kovalenko. Photo: FB Alexander Kovalenko

– Yes, they have quite ambitious plans for a summer offensive campaign across the all over the battle line. These are Kupyansky, Lymansky, Siversky, Toretsky, Konstantinovsky, Pokrovsky directions, Kurakhiv performance and the Greater Mikhailovsky direction. All this is included in their plans for the future offensive. In Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions, the intensification of hostilities is also expected, but it will be predominantly such a stopping and distracting maneuver for our troops.
– When can this offensive can actually begin?
– It is already in the initial phase. Then it is activated in the second half of May – early June. That is, if the so-called “Putin truce” (from May 8 to May 11.-Ed.) There were 150-190 storms of the Russians a day, then by the end of May there may be 200-250 assault actions a day, and in June there will be even more.

– Where is the highest concentration of hostile forces now recorded?

– These are Pokrovsky, Konstantinovsky directions, Kurakhiv and Toretsky. There is the hostile concentration now is the highest.

– Is there a direct threat of admiration for Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson?

– No, these cities are threatened only by shelling, kabaky, ballosis, drones. There is no threat to admiration for them.

– What are the whole goals of Putin with this offensive?

– to capture the time of Yar, Toretsk, the H32 route (Pokrovsk – Bakhmut – Mikhailivka), to surround Konstantinovka from the east and south to start city fights. He also wants to surround Pokrovsk from the east and west and enter the border of Dnipropetrovsk region. Why? Because it is difficult to carry out storms on motorcycles in the rainy season in the fall or winter, in frost and snowfall. Therefore, he wants to go to the autumn and winter in the cycle of city battles for these big cities, where it is necessary to use mainly infantry, artillery, aviation and not much need.

Putin’s human reserve is still quite large – We are ready for such an offensive, we will not be misleading these conversations about peace talks?

– Well, there will be no peace, everyone talks about it. I think that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is very well aware of what Russian invaders are preparing for, and will, accordingly, will continue to keep the defense.

– Where is Putin’s power, because in three years we have failed almost a million killed and wounded Muscovites?

– Speaking of the average losses that Russian occupation troops now bear, Moscow can compensate for them every month. Because Putin has people so far.

– They write that a blow to Belarus is possible.

– In principle, the attempt to such an offensive from Belarus is quite real, until Lukashenko is the so -called President of Belarus. But you need to look at the contingent in the territory of Belarus, which is formed, shock groups and so on. So far, such a shock group is not formed, and such threats to Ukraine as the invasion are not recorded.

– And we have moral law, in terms of war, to strike in Belarus, if the troops go from that side?

– Of course. We did not do this in 2022, but if there is such a threat in 2025, then nothing will stop us.

– The event threatens with new sanctions how painful they will be for Russia?

– Russia is quickly adapted to them. Adjusts the smuggling of Western goods or something else. Therefore, it will all depend on the amount of sanctions, what they concern, whether Russia can handle it.

Trump can revenge Putin by giving Ukraine weapons – Can our Western partners increase our weapons supply under this offensive?

– It is possible, especially for the United States. Because if activation begins on the front, it will be frustrated for Donald Trump in Putin. And given his character, it may be that he will want to take revenge on Putin. And how to take revenge? It is to give Ukraine more weapons. Therefore, it is absolutely real.

– How will mobilization in Ukraine increase under this offensive? Will people be taken more to the army?

– In principle, we now have the number of troops in the war zone, which is necessary to restrain and hinder offensive actions of the number of troops of the Russians, which is also in the war zone.

And the activation of offensive actions by the Russians does not mean that they will suddenly appear a million “meat”, which they will throw our positions.

– And what is the potential reserve of this “meat” in Russia?

– There are a lot of service, medical staff and more who sit on the rear. There are now 650 to 680 thousand Russian soldiers in the war zone. They can only add when they announce overall mobilization. In total, they have about one million people in the reserve. That is, in a year they will be able to increase the number of their troops to a million million two hundred thousand, even despite the loss in Ukraine.

– Do they actually threaten other countries in Europe, in particular, the Baltic States?

– Yes, because during the truce they will not sit with their hands. They will accumulate equipment, ammunition, continue mobilization. If they have 1,200,000 people in the army in a year, they can easily quit 200 thousand in the Baltic countries.

Source: kp.ua