“Find out why the EU-Mercosur agreement threatens Ukraine’s exports and why cooperation with Poland is important.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
The European Union, signing the pact with South America, says directly: “We do not know when the war in the East will end, so we are looking for security in the South.” In this new cynical schedule, Ukraine has been moved to the “humanitarian problem” category, while Brazil and Argentina have taken the “business partner” category.
As an observer of Ukrainian politics, I am genuinely shocked by one thing. In Warsaw and Paris, Mercosur brings people to the streets and is the number one topic in the media. There is silence in Kyiv.
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It is surprising that the topic, which fundamentally threatens the economic future of Ukraine, is actually absent in public space. Ukrainian politicians do not seem to notice that right now the fate of whether Ukraine will have someone to sell its goods to after the war is being decided. This silence is more dangerous than the agreement itself, because it shows that Kyiv is misreading signals from the West. And the signal is clear: “Let’s take care of ourselves, we do business elsewhere.”
Let’s face the truth, without diplomatic powdering of reality. The EU ambassadors’ decision revealed how Brussels actually classifies Ukraine today in its “Excel” tables.
Today, Ukraine is primarily a security challenge for Europe. We are perceived as a “recipient” of aid, a buffer zone and a dam against the Russian invasion. This category is: Costs, Risks and Volatility.
Instead, Mercosur countries are categorized as: business, development and profit.
Why? It’s simple, albeit painful math. If the EU signs such an agreement, it means that it sees no chance for a quick resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. To guarantee the stability of the supply of food and raw materials, Europe finds an import alternative as far as possible from Russian missiles. Brussels prefers to import products from Brazil because there is no risk of blockade of ports or destruction of infrastructure.
Moreover, Ukraine is currently not an attractive market for goods from the EU. War washes money out of consumers’ pockets.
Europe wants to sell its technology and cars where there is peace and money — that is, in South America. Ukraine as a market is “a matter of the distant future”. Maybe tomorrow, maybe in 10 years. But business is done today.
As a Pole who has lived in Irpen for years, I look at the last two years of Warsaw-Kyiv relations with pain, but also with hope. Disputes about grain, raspberries or transport drained us of blood politically. But entering the Mercosur scene changes everything.
This is the front where our mutual competition can paradoxically turn into a joint force. A Polish farmer and a Ukrainian agricultural holding today have one and the same rival: latifundia from South America. We have no influence on Mercosur countries, but we do have influence on our relations.
This is the last signal: if Ukraine does not realize the need for a close, sectoral alliance with Poland, it will become a huge threat for it. We must stop looking for ways to “get around” each other. Cheating, looking for legal loopholes or trying to bypass Poland in logistics is the way to nowhere.
In the face of the agreement with Mercosur, Poland ceases to be a competitor for the Ukrainian agricultural sector and becomes a necessary partner. Ukrainian scale of production plus Polish processing and influences in Brussels — only such a tandem can stand up against global competition.
The European Union has just shown that it has a plan “B” in case of a protracted war. This plan is called Mercosur. If we do not have our plan “B”, based on the honest cooperation of Ukraine and Poland, we risk becoming an eternal “problem to be solved” for Europe, and not a partner with whom to do business.
Let this be a lesson for us all. Let’s put an end to naive romanticism in our relations with Europe and our neighbors. Love and sympathy and flags are important, but at the end of the day only interest matters at the negotiating table.
Pyotr Izdebsky, publicist, analyst of Polish-Ukrainian relations, founder of the Horatio School of Polish Language and Culture, CEO of the Charitable Foundation “Heart of Teofipol”
A column is a type of material that reflects exclusively the point of view of the author. It does not claim objectivity and comprehensive coverage of the topic in question. The point of view of the editors of “Economic Pravda” and “Ukrainian Pravda” may not coincide with the author’s point of view. The editors are not responsible for the accuracy and interpretation of the given information and perform exclusively the role of a carrier.