Kursk Operation: A moment before the finals? In Kurshchyna

Current Situation in Kurshchyna

Ukraine has repeatedly stated that the purpose of the Kursk operation is not to seize land as such. That is, Kiev will not behave as the Russian Federation does: to carry out some “referendums”, to carry out annexation, etc. From the very beginning, it was clear that the bridgehead in Kurshchyna would be temporary, that it was needed for local purposes.

All this we say to understand: Kursk operation – a priori is a temporary phenomenon. Sooner or later, the Armed Forces had to get out of there, so there is no disaster or surrender of Ukrainian interests in this process.

However, in the last week, the events began to unfold too quickly, which is confirmed by both the General Staff and the DeepState portal. For the period from March 10 to March 16, Ukraine lost more than 260 km² in the Kurshchyna area of ​​controlled territory. On the scale of our war, this is a great achievement for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

It is important to emphasize that such success is made by Russia at a high cost. The best parts of the hostile army work on this area of ​​the front. At the same time, in almost all other areas in Ukraine, the offensive of the Russians either slowed down or in fact stopped.

As of March 18, about 220 km² of territory in Kurshchyna remains under the control of Kiev. According to the US and the Russian Federation, the Armed Forces are in danger of the environment. Although maps and official statements say that these statements are at least exaggerated, at least – are not true at all. But the complexity of the situation is obvious, and it is emphasized by the fact that the entire Kursk speech of the Russians was almost “cut” in half into two parts with a narrow strip of the Ukrainian control zone right near our state border.

However, there are reports that Russian troops have already entered the Sumy region. They created something in the type of bridgehead in the area of ​​Novinok-Basivka, with an area of ​​about 60 km². Now from the leading positions of the Russian Federation to the outskirts of the city of Sumy remains in a straight line about 30 km. And the Kremlin head Putin, who recently visited troops in the Kursk region, again, like a year ago, spoke about the “buffer zone” along the Ukrainian borders.

The complexity of the situation is recognized by President Zelensky. He actually said that the campaign is close to completion. In particular, the head of state thanked the soldiers and stated that the “tasks were completed”, which could be interpreted as a signal to the soon completion of the operation.

“I can only thank our soldiers for the Kursk operation. I think she accomplished her task, ”Zelensky said.

At the same time, there was no direct order to curtail combat and completely leave the Kurchyna yet. Although it is almost obvious that in the coming weeks of the Armed Forces, most likely, they will leave the territory of the Russian Federation.

In this context, it is extremely interesting to observe the completely coordinated rhetoric of the US and Russia presidents. Both Trump and Putin are synchronous about the difficult situation of the defense forces, which is true. Both say that Ukrainians need to be captured – although after regular personnel with the executions of our unarmed captured military, this idea looks like a frank abuse. Both also say about the boiler and the environment, although there is nothing objectively.

All this makes you think. Most likely, there is an unspoken consensus between the Russian Federation and the US. And as long as the Armed Forces are in this territory, there will be no substantive negotiations between Moscow and Washington.

In doing so, both parties (especially Trump) are interested in these negotiations. Therefore, we see America and Russia in synchronous in Kiev, forcing it to complete the Kursk campaign. We can assume that this pressure is likely to be successful.

Kursk Operation: Was it successful

There is no clear answer to this question. It all depends on what to consider for the purpose of invasion of Kurshchyna, which has been going on for more than 8 months.

This operation did not change the situation in the war. Although there was a clear attempt to do it.

Also in the media and the expert environment it was repeatedly said that Ukraine would like to exchange the territories of Kursk region for some others. This was confirmed by the President later. In Russia, however, they decisively rejected any opportunity for such exchanges.

It was rumored that Kyiv can exchange the Kursk bridgehead for the Zaporizhzhya NPP and Energodar occupied by the Russians. Although it was clearly a maxima task, and implementation would be possible only in the case of a “mirror” capture of Kursk NPP and, ideally, the cities of Kurchatov, where it is located. But the Armed Forces did not reach there.

Another purpose of the operation was the desire to stop or slow down the offensive of the Russian Federation, forcing the enemy to transfer some of his troops into the Kursk direction. And here it can be argued that at least partially the goals are clearly achieved.

Recently, the southern direction “frozen”, although literally in the last days began to thaw in the area of ​​Orikhov. The promotion of Russians in Kharkiv region has almost stopped: about 16 km² in the last week – this is literally nothing, “trampled on the spot.” The situation is similar in Donetsk region. Moreover, there the Ukrainian forces even went to local counterattack.

At the same time, the best and most capable Russian units are really overturned under Kursk. The DPRK’s troops were also involved there. Therefore, if it was the purpose of the operation, it can be stated that the goals were achieved.

However, it is advisable to know the exact figures of losses of both parties for unambiguous summary estimates. We do not know the number of wounded and killed and killed, as well as the volume of lost equipment from the Armed Forces, since this information is a military secret during the war. The losses of the invaders are clearly large, but they are most likely inflated, which is also absolutely clear in wartime.

But those losses of Ukraine, which the Russians say, are definitely not true. Because only the numbers of allegedly destroyed equipment and dead (hundreds of tanks, thousands of armored vehicles, dozens of tons The killed, etc.) are clearly cosmic far from reality.

Expert opinions

Military expert Oleg Zhdanov He believes that the goals of the Kursk operation were performed in part. It is impossible to say no unambiguous success, but not about a unambiguous failure.

“They are partially performed in relation to the purpose of the operation. In the near future, if we do not manage to keep at least a small part of the territory of the Kursk region, we will go from there. Operation performed military goals in terms of Russian troops. But political goals, unfortunately, are not … If the Russians can squeeze us out of Kursk, then Putin will return to the issue “Peace in exchange in the territory” one hundred percent. Today, our presence in the Kursk region deprives it of such opportunity.

Judging by the situation, our military leadership again did not cope with the task of planning and organizing combat. I mean a chaotic departure, an unexpected offensive of Russian troops – it became unexpected for us again. And so, most likely, we will not stay there for a long time and we will bring out our connections, ”Zhdanov says.

According to him, the Russians have already entered the Sumy region and are beginning to be fixed there. But the expert reassures: he does not expect a march of the Russian Federation for sums.

“There will be no hike to the amount. They do not have so much strength and means. But to create a few bridgeheads as in the area of ​​the same Basivka, they will definitely try … Russians will try to realize the “Kharkiv event”. They created two bridges in Kharkiv and actually stopped. This option is very possible now in the Sumy region. But we may be able to stay along the border. If we solve the problem of Basivka and do not let the Russians be fixed there, then we can stay in the border, ” – summarized Oleg Zhdanov.

But the captain of the US Navy retired Gary Tabaks He believes that it is too early to discuss the results of the Kursk operation. In his opinion, there is still no clarity in this matter.

“Honestly, I still have no thoughts on it. Not everything is clear there, discussing and drawing conclusions is too early. And in general, it is not in a military: there should be no guessing. There should be a purpose and a combat mission. Performed or not fulfilled. Nobody but 2-3 commandants can know it … For the families of dead and wounded, no success, of course, is not. And we do not know the other side. All this will judge history. But in general, any war is already a failure, ”Tabakh said.

The conclusions can be noted that in the public space there are absolutely polar and radical estimates of Kursk operation. Someone says it was a clear success. Someone declares a complete failure. Interestingly, many Ukrainian soldiers in general evaluate the campaign positively.

Although it will be more appropriate here to be “ambiguous”. The Kursk operation was ambiguous. Some of her tasks are not completed, and this does not make it possible to declare success. However, the rest of the goals are clearly achieved, which does not allow to say about any failure. In general, it is just another important page of this war, which will later be analyzed by historians: difficult, bloody and ambiguous.

Nikita Trachuk