“On Sunday, January 5, a new operation of the Armed Forces began. The defense forces went on the offensive in the territory of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. There were also reports of attempts to break through in the area of the state border with the Belgorod region. As of now, heavy fighting continues on the Kursk bridgehead. There is information that Ukrainian forces could advance to a distance of 6-8 kilometers per day. However, about”, — write on: ua.news
On Sunday, January 5, a new operation of the Armed Forces began. The defense forces went on the offensive in the territory of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. There were also reports of attempts to break through in the area of the state border with the Belgorod Region.
As of now, heavy fighting continues on the Kursk bridgehead. There is information that Ukrainian forces could advance to a distance of 6-8 kilometers per day. However, there is still no question of capturing any large settlements or significant areas of territory.
What is happening as of now? What are the military and political goals of the new operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? What result can you expect? Agency UA.News understood the issue.
Actual situation at the front
It is quite difficult to understand the real situation and situation at the front right now. In fact, we are talking about the “fog of war”, when the situation is in constant dynamics, and a huge number of fakes, information attacks and IPSO (both ours and the enemy’s) circulate around it.
Nevertheless, some conclusions can be drawn based on the information that is known for certain. For example, in the morning summary of the General Staff from 8 am on January 6, it is said that the Defense Forces of Ukraine “continue the operation in the Kursk region.” The active work of Russian aviation and almost half a thousand artillery shells are mentioned. The Ukrainians repelled 47 attacks by the Russian Federation in a day – which sounds rather strange, because the attacking party is apparently Ukraine, not Russia.
As of 4:00 p.m. on January 5 (i.e. yesterday), the General Staff reported 42 combat clashes, without specifying whether they were offensive attacks or repelling Russian assaults. 12 of these clashes were ongoing at the time of publication of the summary. At 22:00, 9 active battles continued.
Another well-known source of information for analyzing the situation at the front is the map of the DeepState portal. However, our analysts did not notice any special changes in it either yesterday or today. Except that the directions of the main blows are indicated.
Mostly it is the northeast of the Kursk region. There is an opinion in the mass media and the Telegram community that the main goal of the operation is to seize the Kursk NPP. However, it is more than 40 kilometers away in a straight line, and it is also a working nuclear facility. So for now, this goal looks rather dubious and very difficult.
In addition, there was information about the capture of the settlement of Berdyn. This village is approximately 6 kilometers from the borders of the Ukrainian zone of occupation. However, the same DeepState portal does not display such information, and the establishment of control over the village was not officially announced. Most likely, advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine really broke through to Berdyn, but whether they managed to gain a foothold and completely capture the settlement is an open question.
In general, as we said above, so far the situation is in constant dynamics. As a result, analyzing operational information is difficult, and not very meaningful. It will be possible to sum up the interim results in a few days or a week. It is much more interesting to understand what goals this operation of the Armed Forces pursues.
The military-political goal of “Kursk-2”
In fact, the specific military goal of the new offensive in Kurshchyna does not seem obvious yet. She is not directly named by anyone, so one can only guess about her.
Theoretically, this would make sense if the target really is the Kursk NPP or even an exit to the city of Kursk itself. However, the distance to Kurchatov, where the station is located, is more than 40 kilometers, to Kursk – more than 80. So far, it is not clear whether the ZSU will be able to overcome such distances. After all, for this war, tens of kilometers are a lot.
However, all this does not mean that the operation was conceived without any military purpose at all, because this is not the case. The first and main thing that our armed forces clearly want to do is to seize the military initiative and break the negative trend at the front. After all, for the entire year 2024, it was the Russian Federation that had the initiative on the battlefield, while the Armed Forces retreated. And if the Russian Armed Forces are traditionally strong in the tactics of “frontal” pressure, the Ukrainian army is a structure that best succeeds in fast, asymmetric and maneuverable operations.
Apparently, this is exactly what is happening now in Kurshchyna. Defense forces are trying to expand their zone of occupation and seize control of the military-tactical initiative. There is also an opinion that in this way an attempt to neutralize the military threat from the DPRK soldiers is also being implemented. This is indirectly evidenced by Zelensky’s remark in an interview with Lex Friedman, when he told about thousands of killed or wounded North Korean soldiers.
However, the political goal of the new operation in Kurshchyna is more likely. It is closely related both to the inauguration of the US President-elect Donald Trump, which will take place on January 20, and to a number of other reasons.
So, in two weeks in the USA, Donald Trump will officially become the president. He constantly and openly declares his intentions to ensure peace between Ukraine and Russia, seeks to stop hostilities and force the parties to sit down at the negotiating table. Also, Trump’s special representative Keith Kellogg, who has his own peace plan and a mandate from the Republican to try to “appease” the warring countries, will soon arrive in Kyiv.
We should not forget about the activity of the administration of Joe Biden, who will soon leave his post. In recent months, the USA has been actively providing Ukraine with more and more aid packages, mostly of a military nature. These weapons must show themselves in battle, and not just lie in warehouses.
Finally, as we have already noted above, the whole of last year at the front, a negative trend was recorded for Kyiv. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were gradually losing ground, the occupying army was advancing, and the Russian Federation had recently intensified its missile and drone terror of Ukrainian territory.
All these points together create an ideal situation for counteroffensive actions of the Armed Forces. After all, potential negotiations should be approached from a position of strength, from the position of the side that advances and moves forward. That is why the Russian Federation is in such a hurry in Donbas. And that is why, it seems, Ukraine has decided to go on a new offensive in Kurshchyna.
Finally, there is one more interesting point. Many of the Russian so-called “military personnel” point to the fact that the offensive of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region is quite limited and “slow”. Kyiv is clearly not using all the forces and means available to it. Because of this, there is an opinion that “Kursk-2” is only a diversionary maneuver, and soon the Armed Forces will strike in full force on another part of the front.
It can be anywhere: from Bryansk or Belgorod region to a new breakthrough on Energodar with the aim of returning the Zaporizhzhya NPP under the legal control of Ukraine. Despite the difficult situation, Kyiv still keeps certain forces in reserve – most likely, precisely in order to use them x at a crucial moment.
As a result, we can conclude that the new offensive in Kurshchyna is a political rather than a military necessity. His goal in the military plan is primarily to try to regain the tactical military initiative. In the political sense, this is an attempt to prove that Ukraine is capable of advancing, seizing territory and winning, and can enter potential negotiations from a position of strength.
Two main questions remain. First, what exactly and in what quantity will the Defense Forces be able to capture? Second, how will this affect the front in Ukraine itself, in the same Donbas? The final assessment of the success or failure of the new Kursk operation will depend on the answers to these questions.
Nikita Trachuk