“In an interview with UNIAN, Doctor of Historical Sciences, director of the Institute of Effective Politics, Vitaly Andrievsky explained why Russia carried out a gas attack on Transnistria under its control, and how it can use it against Ukraine and Moldova.”, — write: www.unian.ua
Since January 1, despite the fact that Transnistria has always been in Moscow’s fairway, Russia has cut off gas to the PMR. To date, there are no clear decisions of the so-called authorities of the PMR regarding how the region is going to solve this problem. Meanwhile, without Russian gas, almost the entire “economy” of Transnistria came to a standstill.
UNIAN talked to political analyst from Moldova Vitaly Andrievsky and found out what is happening in one of the areas of the western border of Ukraine and what threats it poses for us.
Mr. Vitaly, Russia has stopped supplying Transnistria with gas since January 1. In PMR, practically all enterprises stopped. And how does the population feel?
The situation is catastrophic. The gas still left in the pipes can supply about 10% of consumers. The other 90% are already disconnected. Heating is actually preserved only in rural areas, where there are stoves and the possibility of burning and heating with firewood.
There is also a lack of electricity. Currently, it is produced at the TPP using coal, but according to some data, coal reserves may run out already at the end of January, in the worst case, it will be enough until February 5-10. In the current week, fan outages are taking place for eight hours a day, with a breakdown of four hours. And given that consumption is less at night, more are turned off during the day.
The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PMR, Vitaliy Ignatiev, gave an interview to Russian propagandists from “Russia 24” and said that “the problem should be resolved as quickly as possible”, in the next week or two, but without specifics as to how this will happen.
Tiraspol is now playing according to the score of the Kremlin. That is, they do everything the Kremlin tells them. Moscow has now made it clear that Tiraspol should not have any agreements with Chisinau, that there is no need to look for gas anywhere, but simply to survive a certain time that Russia needs. Just hold on. But it is still not clear what exactly Russia wants.
Moldova is ready to help. Gas can be supplied from Moldova (we tested this before and it works). And where to get it? You can pay and get something from Europe. Theoretically, it is possible through the Black Sea, perhaps through Romania… It is also possible to negotiate with Ukraine on the supply of coal and use it to generate electricity… I am not talking about volumes for launching enterprises. But it would be enough for the population.
I think that in this situation it would be good if the leaders of Moldova and Ukraine were the initiators of such humanitarian aid and would demonstrate influence in the region.
Do I understand correctly: due to the fact that the Russian Federation has not yet decided how to act, the authorities of Transnistria are more likely to freeze the population than accept energy and humanitarian aid, let’s say, from the other side? From the EU, from Moldova?
In this matter, they need to overcome a psychological obstacle. If you talk to them face to face, they understand that it is time to cut the umbilical cord with Russia. But, as I said, they are not ready for this psychologically and, let’s say frankly, they are afraid. They fear that if they take any steps now, without the Kremlin’s sanction, the Russian Federation may issue an order to arrest and detain them. Because the security forces in Transnistria are controlled by Moscow.
Security forces in Transnistria are controlled by Moscow / UNIAN photo, Oleksiy KravtsovThe second point is that many people in Transnistria and Moldova hope that PMR will get into some joint package of agreements regarding Ukraine. This is the hope that after the conclusion of peace, Russia will withdraw its army, the “peacekeepers”, from Transnistria, and there will be no more levers of influence on the PMR. In Tiraspol, they are not ready for an “uprising” against the Russian Federation, but want their problems to be solved by someone else’s hands. In this case – by the hands of Ukraine, partly Moldova, the European Union, the USA, etc.
But Russia has a different interest. There is a version that the current “freeze” of Transnistria is needed by the Kremlin in order to influence the upcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova – citizens dissatisfied with the policies of the current government plus the famous pro-Russian “nets”, and the Russian Federation can get its result. In fact, the second Georgia. Do you agree with this version?
This is the interpretation of today’s events. That is, is it possible to work with the electorate in this way? Definitely.
On the one hand, residents of the PMR, who have Moldovan citizenship, can themselves be the voters who will vote the way Moscow wants. On the other hand, the situation in Transnistria affects the situation in Moldova.
What is the problem? Moldova, I mean the right bank, purchases electricity from the Kuchurganska (Dniester) DRES. Due to the fact that it was produced on “free” Russian gas, it was cheaper, including for the population. And now Moldova also has problems. It has gas, heat, electricity, but you have to pay Europe for it. And payments (although the state partially compensates them) for citizens have increased.
The Kremlin can bet that these voters, too, are likely to express their displeasure at the polls.
And will Russia help them understand who is to blame (and it is, of course, not her)?
Definitely. Especially if we take into account that the president in the parliamentary republic of Moldova is very limited in his powers, and the parliament appoints the government, makes and controls the implementation of decisions, and so on. In this sense, those who say that there is no point in “taking” Transnistria, if the cards are favorable for Russia, are right. Russia needs all of Moldova.
Plus, it will hit Ukraine hard. Because if Moldova finds itself under the influence of Russia after the parliamentary elections, it will affect both transit (now Moldova acts as a kind of transit hub for Ukrainians) and security. In particular, a threat will appear again for the Odesa region – an army, albeit a small one, will appear nearby.
Russia needs all of Moldova, not only Transnistria / photo ua.depositphotos.comDo you mean the Russian contingent in PMR? But it is quite small.
Well, there are, say, two thousand Russian soldiers there. And another eight thousand of the Transnistrian army. But there are power structures controlled by the Russian Federation. Plus, mobilization cannot be ruled out.
As can be seen from other actions of Russia, if they wish, they can easily recruit up to 30 thousand people in Transnistria as well. It is already worrying for Ukraine if the war continues.
Russia is working very seriously in different directions, there is hardly only one scenario for destabilization. Let’s say directly, there are no fools sitting in the Kremlin. There are many young, smart guys who serve the current government. And although there are people in power, perhaps with the thinking of the last century, there are a lot of analysts who can build different scenarios. Therefore, the actions of the Russian Federation cannot be underestimated.
Returning to the situation with the Transnistria gas cut, when, in your opinion, will the population be ready to accept help from Russia? So far, everything looks like the Russian Federation is waiting for some convenient moment to once again turn from an aggressor into a “peacemaker”.
Indeed, if Russia is acting according to some scenario (one of them), then people in the PMR should be ripe for help from the Kremlin. You see, if the population of Transnistria freezes, conditionally, for a week, and this problem is solved immediately, then both it and its solution, and who was the peacemaker, will quickly be forgotten. And if they find themselves in a situation like, for example, blockaded Leningrad during the Second World War – when there is no electricity, heat, or even bread, and then Putin suddenly comes to the rescue and “saves” everyone – it will be remembered forever.
In fact, a similar example is already in front of our eyes: when Catherine II resettled the Gagauz people here – saved them from the Turks, they still feel gratitude to Russia. And this is passed down from generation to generation.
Do you assume that Russia will no longer come to the aid of Transnistria?
This option cannot be ruled out. For example, if in the negotiations that can be conducted at the unofficial level between the USA and Russia, Transnistria is included in the package of agreements regarding Ukraine.
Conditionally, if the Kremlin understands that it is losing Transnistria, then the big question is whether it makes sense to continue to deal with it. It’s simple: lose, then lose. There should be no illusions that “the Russians are not abandoning their own.” There are a lot of examples when they quit when it is beneficial for them.
But for now, I think this is an unrealistic option. And the thing is not only that Zelensky is unpredictable in some things. And not only in the fact that it is absolutely unknown how the even more unpredictable Trump will behave. Today, for Russia, Transnistria is a kind of unsinkable aircraft carrier, the weapons of which are simultaneously aimed both in the direction of Chisinau and in the direction of Kyiv. In the current situation, it is beneficial for the Kremlin to maintain this state of affairs. There is still time to “play”. Therefore, I think, Russia does not want to leave here yet.
Tatyana Urbansk