““A Russian counteroffensive operation to retake the territory captured by Ukrainian forces in Kurshchyna will very likely require even more manpower and equipment than Russia has already concentrated in the area, and therefore additional Russian redeployments from Ukraine””, — write: www.radiosvoboda.org
“Ukrainian officials and sources indicated that Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region prompted the Russian authorities to more than triple the size of the Russian group of forces in the region… The reports of the increase in the number of the Russian group in the Kursk region reflect how the operational pressure caused by the operation of the ZSU, forced the Russian military command to redeploy elements from Ukraine to the Kursk region and send newly formed forces from Russia to this area instead of the front line in Ukraine. A Russian counteroffensive operation to recapture the territory captured by Ukrainian troops in Kurshchyna will very likely require even more manpower and equipment than Russia has already concentrated in the area, and therefore additional Russian redeployments from Ukraine,” the report says.
In addition, analysts note that the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region stimulated Russia to carry out new exchanges of prisoners of war.
“Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners of war on September 14 – the third since the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region, which appears to have increased incentives for Russia to participate in prisoner of war exchanges. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly emphasized that the offensive in the Kursk region has strengthened Ukraine’s negotiating position on prisoner-of-war exchanges with Russia, after the Kremlin has consistently rejected Ukraine’s attempts to negotiate exchanges,” ISW said.
“The frequency of prisoner of war exchanges between Ukraine and Russia increased significantly after the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region on August 6, the two sides exchanged a total of 267 prisoners of war each in three separate exchanges. From January 1 to August 6, 2024, Russia and Ukraine conducted only three other prisoner of war exchanges involving approximately 405 Ukrainian and 423 Russian prisoners of war,” the report added.
Analysts noted that Ukrainian troops continue offensive operations in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, in particular, advancing in the Glushkovsky district and north of Suja.
Earlier this week, the Ukrainian OSINT resource DeepState reported on the deterioration of the situation on the left (western) flank of the Ukrainian group, which controls part of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. According to the researchers, the Russian military “began active assault operations, crossing armored vehicles first through the Seim, and then through smaller rivers.”
Ukrainian official resources have not reported on the change in the situation in the Kursk region.
During the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region of Russia, Kyiv declared that it gained control over more than 1,200 kilometers of Russian territory.
It was previously reported that the operation was aimed at improving Kyiv’s position in the event of peace negotiations. Analysts also suggest that the operation is aimed at conveying to the Russians the seriousness of an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
It was the first foreign invasion of Russian territory since World War II.