“Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that Russia’s attempts to de facto annex Belarus create strategic risks for the US, NATO and Ukraine. Source: ISW Literally ISW: “Moscow’s efforts to de facto annex Belarus within the framework of the Union state, although not completed, have already achieved significant success, which requires NATO to reassess the consequences of strengthening Russian control over Belarus, as well as the capabilities and resources that Russia can use against the United States, NATO and Ukraine as a result of this”.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
Source: ISW
Literally ISW: “Moscow’s efforts to de facto annex Belarus within the framework of the Union state, although not complete, have already achieved significant success, which requires NATO to reassess the consequences of increased Russian control over Belarus, as well as the capabilities and resources that Russia can use against the United States , NATO and Ukraine as a result of this”.
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Details: Analysts note that Belarus is not just an ally of Russia, the Kremlin is turning Belarus into a strategic partner that helps Russia spread its power around the world.
They add that the Kremlin will use its recent but deep-seated gains in Belarus to offset the costs of Russia’s protracted war against Ukraine, speed Russia’s recovery from the war in Ukraine, and help Russia prepare for future wars faster than it could on its own.
Literally ISW: “Politicians should start planning for a future in which Belarus will not only be an enslaved country, but actually an extension of the Russian Federation.”
Details: Experts emphasize that Russia is trying to take control of all areas of management of the neighboring state.
In this regard, three key directions of Russian efforts are considered: the Kremlin’s efforts aimed at the military, political and economic integration of Russia and Belarus.
Literally ISW: “The Kremlin’s desired set of integration measures with Belarus is so broad and comprehensive in so many respects that it is more difficult to determine what Moscow will not control in Belarus, if it succeeds, than to list what Moscow will control.”
Details: According to analysts, although Russia has not completed its attempt to de facto annex Belarus, it has already reached such stages that pose a threat to the security of the United States, NATO and Ukraine, as well as a threat to the continued existence of Belarus as a sovereign state.
Literally ISW: “Russia does not need to make additional integration gains in Belarus to threaten the West. Russia’s existing set of military, political and economic integration gains in Belarus since 2020 already pose a threat to the West that policymakers must consider.”
Why it matters: Russia is using the territory of Belarus during the entire full-scale invasion – the Russian military invaded the territory of Ukraine, in particular, from the territory of Belarus, as well as from the territory of the Republic of Belarus, Russia repeatedly attacked Ukraine with missiles.
Putin used the territory of Belarus for training and treatment of his soldiers, for transferring weapons and equipment.
It is in the territories of Belarus, which border Ukraine and Poland, that Russia conducts joint military exercises with the Belarusian troops, in particular, regarding the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Among other things, the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, explained his full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the fact that Ukraine was allegedly preparing to attack Russia. The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Oleksandr Lukashenko, tipped him off and even promised to show some maps from where the attack was being prepared, but he never did.
Instead, during more than 2 years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko stated many times that NATO could allegedly attack Belarus. Allegedly, it is precisely because of this perceived threat that the Republic of Belarus conducts its numerous military exercises near the borders of other countries and has even placed Russian nuclear weapons on its territory.
In December, Lukashenko said that he expected Belarus to initially receive ten Oreshnik missile systems from Russia, but that their number could be increased later if Russia so desired.