“Analysts of the Institute for War Study (ISW) suggest that the statements of Russian ruler Vladimir Putin about the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government and a possible future peace agreement can become an instrument for justifying the violation of any arrangements with Ukraine.”, – WRITE: www.pravda.com.ua
Analysts of the Institute for War Study (ISW) suggest that the statements of Russian ruler Vladimir Putin about the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government and a possible future peace agreement can become an instrument for justifying the violation of any arrangements with Ukraine.
Source: Isw
Literally: “Putin indicated that he would not consider peace agreements as binding, as long as President Vladimir Zelensky’s decree of 2022 was in force to ban his negotiation with him. However, even if the Ukrainian side agrees to cancel this decree, Putin would probably find new grounds for Disruption of arrangements. ”
Details: ISW emphasizes that the Kremlin creates a legal basis for ignoring future agreements, manipulating false interpretations of Ukrainian legislation.
Putin has already stated that Zelensky lost his legitimacy due to the non -election in 2024 during martial law, and the Verkhovna Rada was allegedly the only legal branch of power. At the same time, he calls for unconstitutional actions that can be used in the future to declare this authority “illegitimate” to justify their requirements for a complete change in the regime in Kiev and his unwillingness to negotiate with the Ukrainian authorities.
Such statements give Putin space for manipulation, analysts say. Even if agreements are reached, Russia will be able to rapidly violate them, referring to fake accusations of invalidity of transactions or illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government. The Kremlin used a similar tactic before, violating the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.
Literally: “Even if Zelensky or other representatives of the Ukrainian government agree to cancel the decree banning Putin negotiations, Putin is likely to violate any peaceful or other agreement that he reaches with Ukraine under fake justification that such agreements are” invalid ” , as long as he assumes that he can achieve his maximalist military goals through military operations. ”
Key conclusions ISW for January 29:
- Russian ruler Vladimir Putin stated that Western military assistance remains vital for Ukraine’s ability to maintain defense against Russian aggression.
- Putin’s ancient theory of victory is based on the assumption that the event will refuse Ukraine, and only unwavering support of the West and consistent provision of Western military assistance to Kiev can make Putin abandon his theory and recognize the need for any concessions that are needed for any resolution of conflict acceptable to the US , Europe and Ukraine.
- Putin noted that he would not consider any peaceful agreement with Ukraine as binding, stating that the Ukrainian government is either not desired or could not cancel the Presidential Decree of 2022 on the ban on negotiations with Putin.
- Putin’s statements about the denial of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and the possible future peace agreement create conditions for Russia to justify the violation of any future agreements with Ukraine.
- Putin continues to make efforts to force US President Donald Trump into bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine, to impose the US favorable for the Kremlin and forcing Trump to involuntarily support Russian propaganda about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government.
- On the night of January 28 to January 29, Ukrainian troops struck a drone on the Russian oil refinery in Kstvo of the Nizhny Novgorod region and, according to reports, on the Russian arsenal in Tver region.
- The Ministry of Defense of Russia in a notification of January 29 confirmed that Lieutenant General Oleksandr Sanchyk is the commander of the southern group of Russian troops.
- Ukrainian troops advanced in the Kursk region and near the Toretsk, and Russian troops – near Liman, Temporal, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhov, Greater Novosilka, Robovy, as well as in the Dnieper direction.
- The level of volunteers in Moscow has declined sharply, as Russian citizens are increasingly not wanting to fight in Ukraine.