ISW analyzed the offensive of Russian troops near Ugledar

Russian troops reached the outskirts of Ugledar in Donetsk region during an intensified offensive near the settlement, but its capture is unlikely to give Russian troops any particular operational advantage for further offensive operations in the western part of Donetsk region, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in its report.

In particular, as stated in the message, geo-located footage published on September 24 shows that Russian troops have advanced into eastern Vugledar and are additionally trying to advance on the northeastern flank through Vodyanye and the southwestern flank through Prechistivka, probably trying to surround the Ukrainian group in Vugledar and make him leave.

“Russian forces may be able to capture all of Vugledar, but how quickly or easily they can do so will probably depend in part on the decisions of the Ukrainian military. If the Ukrainian command decides that the risk of a Russian encirclement of Vugledar or the cost of defending the settlement itself in urban fighting is too great, Ukrainian forces can withdraw, allowing Russian forces to capture Vugledar relatively quickly and without engaging in close combat. However, if Ukrainian forces decide to defend Vugledar and are able to thwart Russia’s attempts to encircle it, it may be difficult for Russian forces to break through the settlement, which Ukrainian forces have been fortifying for two years,” the report says.

Analysts also note: if the Russians do not occupy the settlement relatively quickly, the Russian advance will be significantly hampered by the onset of autumn rains.

“However, Russia’s potential capture of Vugledar is unlikely to fundamentally change the course of offensive operations in the west of Donetsk region… The potential capture of Vugledar will also not necessarily provide Russian forces with a favorable position for launching further offensive operations in other parts of western Donetsk region,” ISW says .

Analysts note that Vugledar is about 30 kilometers south of the areas near Pokrovsk, which Russian forces currently prefer, “and Russian forces will have to maneuver over 30 kilometers of open terrain to significantly support an offensive effort southeast of Pokrovsk.”

ISW previously stated that Russian offensive operations near Vugledar and Pokrovsk are complementary and aim to stretch Ukrainian forces along a wider front in the Donetsk region, “but a hypothetical capture of Vugledar by Russia would not necessarily be significant enough from an operational point of view to still stretch Ukrainian forces more”.

The front line in the south of Donetsk region remained motionless for a long time. After the offensive in 2023, the Defense Forces managed to free a small area south of Velika Novosilka (this is the western flank of Vugledar) and fix the line, although attempts by the Russian army to capture the strategically important city of Vugledar continued.