“ISW does not evaluate whether the Kremlin has decided to enter such a war, but believes that the Russian Federation implements long -term plans that may be part of preparation for the future war with NATO”, – WRITE: www.radiosvoboda.org
Analysts believe that the SVR’s statement of October 6 is a continuation of its similar statements about counterfeit operations against European states, such as Poland, Moldova and Serbia, and in recent weeks of SVR, such statements are increasingly making such statements, which is a new agreed model of activity.
ISW suggests that Russia seems to be conducting coordinated preparatory measures within the stage of creating physical and psychological conditions for military emergencies – in recent years, Russia has carried out various open and hidden attacks against NATO states, such as sabotage operations, GPS muffling. From the fall of 2025, Russia has sharply intensified these NATO state attacks, in particular by the invasions of drones into NATO airspace.
“This model of organized activity indicates that Russia has entered the first phase of preparation for the transition to a higher level of war than the one in which Russia is now involved, for example, before the future war between NATO and Russia,” the report reads.
At the moment, ISW does not evaluate whether the Kremlin has decided to join such a higher level and in what time the Kremlin can do it. Analysts believe that Russia implements long -term plans that may be part of the preparation for the coming war between NATO and Russia, such as the restructuring of Russia’s military districts at its western border and building military bases on the border with Finland.
Isw also does not observe the signs that Russia is actively preparing for immediate conflict with NATO at the moment.
The Institute of War Study believes that open and hidden attacks of Russia and statements about counterfeit flags serve Moscow to achieve many goals both internationally and within the country.
“Russia seeks to sow fear among the European population and split NATO’s determination. A wide range of types and places of attacks and fake flags is aimed at creating the feeling that the threat of violence is spreading throughout Europe. Russia seeks to use fear in Europe to make concessions in its war against Ukraine and the possible future war between NATO and Russia. Russia is trying to force Europeans to reduce its support for Ukraine, fearing that continued support will strengthen the open or hidden attacks of Russia, ”the report reads.
On October 6, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) stated that the United Kingdom plans that a group of pro -Ukrainian Russians who fight for Ukraine attacked the Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in the European port. SVR said the saboteurs would claim that they were in place by Moscow’s order and that the UK plans to equip the group with Chinese underwater equipment to accuse China of supporting Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.