“The peace process between Ukraine and the Russian Federation continues against the background of the humanitarian disaster in Kyiv and Moscow’s constant missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian rear lines. Recently, there were negotiations in Abu Dhabi, which ended in nothing – at the same time, right during the negotiations, there were another large-scale attacks on the capital, which once again led to a communal collapse in the capital. Paradox, but even for”, — write on: ua.news
The peace process between Ukraine and the Russian Federation continues against the background of the humanitarian disaster in Kyiv and Moscow’s constant missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian rear lines. Recently passed negotiations in Abu Dhabi, which ended in nothing – at the same time, right during the negotiations, there were another large-scale attacks on the capital, which once again led to a communal collapse in the capital.
Paradoxically, even under such conditions, all parties evaluate the process positively, despite its frankly surreal nature. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry declares that President Zelenskyi finished to a meeting with the Russian dictator Putin and a direct dialogue regarding the territories and other disputed issues. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmytro Peskov assessed the tripartite meeting in the United Arab Emirates as “progressive and positive.” The American administration, as usual, called the negotiations “constructive”, saying that soon “there may be a settlement”. However, Trump says this absolutely every time and it does not carry any meaning.
At the same time, the positions of the parties remain diametrically opposed. Ukraine demands a ceasefire along the contact line, security guarantees and the adoption of a financial package for recovery, without agreeing to withdrawal Armed Forces from Donetsk region. Russia demands that Donbas be handed over to it without a fight, and only after that it is ready to cease fire. The US, apparently, demands the same from Ukraine, promising security guarantees and money for reconstruction only after signing some kind of agreement.
Everyone stands on their own, pulling the negotiation mess in different directions, like a swan, a crab and a pike from a well-known fable – only they are all standing on a scaffold, and every wrong move guarantees death. It is not entirely clear what positive and constructive aspects the parties see in this process, because in general it is similar to what is called a “dead end”.
So what is actually happening around the negotiation process and does it have any chances for a really positive result? Edition UA.News addressed this issue to well-known political experts. More details – in our material.
Ukraine can even engage in imitation of turbulent activity: director of the Institute of World Politics Yevhen Magda
When we talk about negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, we must understand one simple thing. It consists in the fact that Ukraine cannot refuse these negotiations, even if they are conducted on some unacceptable terms, or if they are absolutely, I would say, negative.
The reason is one and very simple: all because our state became a victim of aggression. And if she refuses peace talks, many of our Western partners will ask us such a dumb question. It will be a question “why don’t you talk about peace”? Americans already use it.
Unfortunately, the dominant thesis is that guarantees of peace are tied to Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Donetsk region. This is geopolitical cynicism, this is coercion to unfavorable conditions. And I think that here we need to be as pragmatic as possible and focus on the result that we all need as of today.
Therefore, I think that Ukraine here can even engage in imitation of turbulent activity, but do not forget about it and act as persistently as possible. That is, we must always defend our own interests.
I am saddened by the fact that we do not have internal strengthening against the background of the fact that we are under more and more pressure. It is a pity that we do not expand the delegation at the negotiations at the expense of professional diplomats. Our government does not change at the expense of professionals who could make the necessary decisions. Therefore, when we act reactively, that is, responding to challenges, we ourselves weaken our position. This must be understood.
There will definitely not be a quick solution, but there is a future: Andriy Zolotaryov, head of the “Third Sector” center
Peace talks actually have a future, even if it doesn’t seem like it at first glance. Few paid attention to the fact that, despite the legal ban on any negotiations with the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian delegation went to Abu Dhabi quite quickly after the meeting between Zelenskyi and Trump in Davos. And now the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes that the President of Ukraine is ready to meet and talk with the Russian visa.
There will definitely not be a quick solution. But given the pressure of Trump, for whom this is fundamentally important, looking at the fact that he created the Peace Council as a kind of alternative to the UN, he needs a positive case, a case of victory.
However, the failure to end the war in Ukraine can play a cruel joke on Trump. Because everyone in the world will finally be convinced that Trump is like that Macron: he talks a lot, but the results are few. You can talk as much as you want about the wars he “ended”, but in reality everything looks a little different. That is why the US president will continue to press.
In general, now we have a dead end. Zelensky demands security guarantees from the United States. The US says no, a ceasefire first. Russia is ready to ensure a ceasefire only on the condition that the Armed Forces withdraw from the remnants of Donbas. The military of the Defense Forces, most likely, tell Zelensky that withdrawing from the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration is a big risk: there are no guarantees that Russia will not go further, taking advantage of the opportunity or simply inventing one or another excuse. And if they go further, then they can enter the operational space and head further to Poltava, to the Dnipro, and there will be no such obstacles for them as in Donbas.
That is why it is a dead end, a closed circle. One issue leads to another issue and interferes with each other.
I would also pay attention to the composition of the Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi. Unlike the historian and cultural expert Medinsky, who belongs to the liberal tower of the Kremlin, now we have Kostyukov, the head of the intelligence department of the General Staff of the Russian Federation. There is not much room for compromise here, because the military are hawks who, until recently, believed that Ukraine should be pressured into capitulation – so, most likely, they will not make any concessions during these negotiations.
But there is also Trump, there are agreements reached in Anchorage, and Trump will squeeze Ukraine with his hands and knees within the framework of previous agreements. what will it be Most likely, this is the withdrawal of the Armed Forces from Donbas, this is a ceasefire on the contact line in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. And, of course, the creation of a free economic zone in the part of Donbas that was controlled by Ukraine – a kind of offshore, through which the United States will trade Russian raw materials, which will be transformed into American ones.
I think that this “gingerbread” will offer in Trump to Putin in Alaska. But there are many “buts” here.
All these factors make negotiations in Abu Dhabi quite difficult. I think that in the best case it is March-April: then maybe something will work out. But I would give about 30% that some agreements will be reached by this time. Peace is still a long way off. That is why the negotiations will continue, and the war will continue: people will continue to die, the economy, energy and everything else will be destroyed.
Someday this war will end anyway: director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics Ruslan Bortnik
Of course, there is a future in negotiations. And one day this war will definitely end with negotiations.
These negotiations can be conducted by Zelensky and Putin. The next leaders of Ukraine and Russia can also conduct these negotiations. We do not know this for sure, but we know one hundred percent that this war will end with negotiations and peace.
However, today the situation has become as simple as possible. The US is ready to sign security guarantees for Ukraine and support the recovery plan — but in exchange for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region. Russia, in turn, will end the active phase of the war, and the US undertakes a commitment — political, informal — that Russia will not resume the active phase of the war at least until the end of Trump’s presidency.
Therefore, everything is as simple as possible, everything is on the table today, everything is extremely obvious. At the same time, all these issues need to be resolved at the level of heads of state. After all, these decisions have a certain side effect and toxicity for all parties: from the point of view of the electorate, from the point of view of future elections… That is why it is the heads of states, it is the leaders of the ratings who must take responsibility – or not take this responsibility – for this kind of agreement. Therefore, it is up to Trump, Zelensky, Putin, and European leaders: whether they will take this responsibility or not.
The negotiations that are continuing now should be properly called consultations. They do not resolve the issue on its merits, but together with these negotiations, the models of the future settlement are detailed. For example, the latest negotiations in Abu Dhabi detailed and developed even more widely models of ceasefire monitoring, models that provide for verification and joint activities on these issues, definitions of the very concepts: ceasefire violation, provocation, resumption of fighting…
Therefore, further technical work is taking place: volumes of materials are being built up so that the leaders have more options, more scenarios, and they have more freedom of political maneuver, choosing one or another option. Also, the parties study each other’s positions and continue to do so… In general, the devil always hides in the details: in bugs, in interpretations. This was perfectly demonstrated by the Minsk agreements.
The parties are waiting today. They wait until someone’s position changes under the pressure of external or internal problems, and one of the parties is not ready to make deeper compromises. The fate of Donbas can become such points of transition. This year’s summer campaign will be decisive for Donbas. So the parties are waiting.
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