““Treasuries love that 4% to 4.1% trading range. Temporary break below more likely. But break above has more legs,” the Dutch bank said.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
The yield has shown resilience, holding above 4% despite several soft economic readings, including Wednesday’s negative ADP employment report for November, which marked the third contraction in five months. A higher yield could tighten financial conditions, disincentivize risk-taking and weigh on riskier assets including cryptocurrencies.
“Treasuries love that 4% to 4.1% trading range. Temporary break below more likely. But break above has more legs,” the bank said in an analyst note to clients on Thursday.
The yield, the US government’s benchmark borrowing cost, fell 2 basis points to 4.06% following the ADP report and then quickly reversed. That was unusual. Weak labor data and subdued inflation headlines are usually a signal that interest rates are headed lower to boost the economy.
The same holds for Federal Reserve interest-rate cut expectations, which have risen to an 87% chance of a reduction this month. Yet the 10-year yield has traded between 4% and 4.20% since September, a key point CoinDesk highlighted earlier this week.
ING attributes this stickiness to structural shifts in the US economy, where productivity gains partially driven by artificial intelligence are playing a bigger role than employment in driving growth.
“Treasuries have built a bit of resilience to the weak jobs narrative,” the analysts wrote. “Partly as there are fewer immigrants coming into the country in net terms, requiring less employment generation. But also as its productivity growth rather than employment growth driving things into the future (AI, among others).”
Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report could generate volatility in the 10-year yield.
According to ING, a softer report might send yields below 4%, but any dip is likely to be temporary. A decisive break above 4.1%, on the other hand, could be more structural, potentially setting the tone well into 2026.
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Predict.fun aims to fix prediction markets’ biggest inefficiency, user funds sitting idle for weeks or months without earning yield, while tapping the large userbase of BNB Chain.
- CZ announced a new prediction market on BNB Chain, predict.fun, which allows user funds to earn yield while positions are open.
- Predict.fun currently has over 12,000 users and a combined market volume of around $300,000, but it lags behind larger platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
- The platform benefits from BNB Chain’s large user base, although it faces challenges due to limited stablecoin issuance and liquidity.
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