In the fourth year of war. Business expectations have changed – who is tuned more pessimistic than all

This was reported by the regulator on his site. “The driver of improving expectations in all sectors was a steady consumer demand, production increase, international financial assistance, energy supply stabilization, and seasonal factor. At the same time, restraining factors remained increased shelling of critical objects, exchange rate and inflationary expectations, shortage of qualified personnel, ”the NBU notes.

According to the survey, the trade sector, thanks to the sufficient supply of goods and stable domestic demand, demonstrates the best expectations among all industries: its index in March increased by 4.4 points – to 54.0 (In March 2024 – 55.1).

“Sustainable consumer demand and further growth of production have helped to improve the positive estimates of industry enterprises regarding their current business activity,” the NBU comments on industry.

Its sectoral index increased by 2.9 points in March to 53.1 and exceeded March 2024 – 51.0. At the same time, pessimistic estimates on finished products: 53.3 against 48.0 last year.

The estimates of the construction sector have increased markedly due to the seasonal factor, the National Bank adds. In March, the sectoral index rose to 8.2 points – to 52.9, while in March 2024 it was 53.3. Unlike the previous four months, the respondents of the sector expected an increase in the volume of construction and the volume of new orders – 63.0 and 55.6, respectively (In March 2024 – 61.4 and 56.8, respectively).

According to the survey, the service companies have also improved their expectations, but remain the most profitable in assessing business activity among all sectors, given the lack of skilled personnel and increasing production costs. Their index increased by 6.6 points to 48.8, although it was 50.6 last year.

“Respondents expected an increase in the volume of services provided (for the first time for 10 months) and the volume of services in the process of execution (For the first time in 11 months), as well as significantly softened their estimates on the volume of new orders for services, ”the NBU report reads.

At the same time, service managers have become uniform who have increased negative employment expectations.

It is specified that a monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from March 5 to March 24 this year. It was attended by 529 enterprises. Among those surveyed 43.1% are industry companies, 26.5% are services, 25.3% – trade, 5.1% – construction; 29.7% of respondents – large enterprises, 27.4% – average, 42.9% – small.

At the same time, 32.3% of the surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.1% – only export operations, 17.4% – only imported, 41.2% do not carry out external economic operations.

In January 2025, the business activity expectations index decreased by 4.8 points compared to December last year and amounted to 41, which corresponds to the level of January 2024.

In February 2025, the business activity expectations index increased by 5.9 points to 46.9, but this is below February 2024 (47.5).