“In the first half of July, the currency market of Ukraine demonstrates two -vector dynamics. The dollar retains stability due to the well -being of the NBU policy, while the euro course remains more volatile under the influence of external factors. The National Bank continues to keep the US currency effectively within a comfortable corridor formed in May-June. At the same time, reducing inflationary pressure contributes to the growth of trust in hryvnia instruments, in particular the T -bills”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
In the first half of July, the currency market of Ukraine demonstrates two -vector dynamics. The dollar retains stability due to the well -being of the NBU policy, while the euro course remains more volatile under the influence of external factors. The National Bank continues to keep the US currency effectively within a comfortable corridor formed in May-June. At the same time, reducing inflationary pressure contributes to the increase in trust in hryvnia instruments, including ATPPs and deposits.
Taras Lesovy, Head of the Treasury Department of one of the Ukrainian banks in a comment, told about expectations in Ukraine’s foreign exchange market this week in a comment this week this week Invest News.
The tendency of the first half of July
In the first half of July, two -Vector dynamics will be stored in the foreign exchange market. On the one hand, the dollar will remain stable thanks to the weighted NBU policy, on the other – the fluctuations in the euro will be less predictable due to external factors.
The National Bank continues to keep the US currency within the comfortable range formed in May-June. As of the beginning of the year, the official course was 42.02 UAH/$and the current level remains lower on 0.5–2%which indicates the effectiveness of the “managed flexibility” mode.
The key feature of this model is the minimum fluctuations in the course, balance of supply and demand with the participation of the regulator. As well as a close relationship between cash and interbank segments. This approach avoids sharp jumps, even if global markets show signs of turbulence.
An important role in maintaining course stability is played by a decrease in inflation pressure. Due to this, the demand for currency is not growing excessively, and citizens are increasingly preferring hryvnia instruments, including government bonds and term deposits. The profitability of the latter today is the highest in the last one and a half years.
Unlike the dollar, the euro demonstrates chaotic fluctuations. This is due to the fact that its course in Ukraine is formed on the basis of the world EUR/USD ratio, and therefore is much more sensitive to geopolitical news and economic solutions in the US and EU.
Factors that will affect the euro
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US customs policy towards Europe, including possible new import restrictions (in particular, 50% of the duty declared by D. Trump);
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Price dynamics for oil and gas, which depends on both the situation in the Middle East and on the action of sanctions against Russia. The rise in energy costs traditionally provokes inflationary pressure and can affect the position of leading currencies;
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The behavior of large investors who, in the face of uncertainty, seek “quiet harbor” for capital – this can temporarily change the demand for individual currencies or even force the markets to “translate” into gold or alternative tools.
The main expressions of the currency market from 7 to 13 July
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Currency changes corridors: 41.6-42 UAH / $ and 46.5-49 UAH / € (on the interbank) and 41.6-42 UAH / $ and 46.5-49 UAH / € (in the cash market).
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Daily course changes: to 0,05-0,15 UAH (interbank), to 0,1-0,2 UAH (Kombank), K. 0,3 UAH (exchange offices).
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The difference between buying and sales courses: to 0.15 UAH for $ 1to 0.2 UAH per € 1 (interbank), to 0.5-0.6 UAH per $ 1to 0.8-1 UAH per € 1 (Kombank), K. 0.6-1 UAH per $ 1to 1-1,3 UAH per € 1 (exchange offices).
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Difference of buying on cash market: 0.2-0.3 UAH for $ 1, 0.3-0.5 per € 1 (Kombank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1, 0.5-0.7 for € 1 (exchange offices).
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Difference of sales on cash market: 0.1-0.2 UAH for $ 1, 0.2-0.3 UAH per € 1 (Kombank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1to 0.5 UAH for € 1 (exchange offices).
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Depending on the currency, the average difference between interbank and cash market rates – 0 UAH.
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Average weekly course deviations – to 1-1.5% from the initial course of the week.
Despite the possible short -term changes, you should not expect a radical weakening of either the dollar or the euro. They remain the main currencies of international payments, and the global economy continues to rely on them. According to some estimates, the dollar serves about 80% of world transactions.
It should be reminded that the dollar exchange rate at the exchange offices of Ukraine stabilized at the beginning of the second week of July. The only European currency is slowly cheaper.
