How much money Ukraine needs in 2026 and where to get it: experts’ opinions

In recent weeks, the expert community has been actively following the vicissitudes around “reparation loan” for Ukraine at the expense of frozen Russian assets worth more than 200 billion euros. On Thursday, December 18, EU leaders had to make a final decision on this matter. UA.News edition on December 2 wrote that the situation regarding this issue is very complicated, and it is not a fact that Kyiv will be able to receive Russian money. That’s how it turned out.

However, the Europeans (with the exception of the “unholy trinity” of Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) still found another way out. They agreed to give Ukraine a loan of 90 billion euros for a period of two years at the expense of issuing Eurobonds, that is, actually at their own expense. The loan is interest-free, and Ukraine will have to return this money only if Russia pays reparations for the war — which, obviously, is not on the horizon yet.

It turns out that the Europeans will give Kyiv 45 billion per year for a two-year period. However, according to Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine need not 45, but at least 120 (!) billion, and this is only for 2026.

The “eternal” question for the Ukrainian state arises: where to get money? There is no simple answer. So UA.News turned to economic experts to hear their analysis of this situation. More details – in our material.

We have to fit in the numbers: director of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzyn

Ukraine’s receipt of these European funds covers our needs for two years. We can dream of any amount, but we have what we have.

As for Defense Minister Shmyhal, he said a little differently. We would like to receive 60 billion dollars for military needs by 2026. That is, we have 60 billion, which we withdraw from the economy of Ukraine, these are our revenues, which will go to security and defense. And plus another 60 billion from partners. But if we take historical experience, what Ukraine receives in the form of military and technical assistance from 2022, then in 2023-2024 the average figure was at the level of 40-45 billion. In 2025 – 38 billion.

Therefore, if there are 40+ billion for the next year, we have to fit into these total volumes. And in addition, we need approximately 18-19 billion macro-financial assistance next year. But let’s not forget that we have direct agreements with the governments of EU countries. The Germans give us 11 billion. The British will give somewhere on the level of 10 billion. The Canadians and the Japanese will also give something… And there is also the International Monetary Fund, we will receive 3-4 billion from it by 2026.

Therefore, if you look at it collectively, then in principle we are going to 2026-2027 without significant problems. But this is not the main problem. The main problem is the mobilization reserve. Because money does not fight by itself, people do. And that’s why many questions remain for Ukrainian security.

There is no final goal in the financing of Ukraine: economist Yurii Gavrilechko

It is impossible to answer the question of where else to get money for the coming years. Since it is absolutely not clear how much and for what Ukraine needs funds. If we reformulate the question in this way, whether this financing will cover the budget deficit for the next year, in this sense, yes. But will there be enough funds – no. Because it is absolutely unclear what exactly and what is missing.

A goal is something that is sought to be achieved. You have seen somewhere that representatives of the authorities said: in 2026, we have… — and then a list of what exactly we have to do. Is there such a thing? No. There is no such thing.

The budget deficit for next year is about two trillion hryvnias. Does that $45 billion a year cover that deficit? Almost overlapping, but so what? Absolutely nothing. Look at the budget structure. Have any peacetime expenses become smaller there? No. The fourth year of full-scale war, but the spending structure remains the same as in 2021. Some reductions have occurred, but not more.

I do not understand the purpose: what should we do with this money from the Europeans. There is no goal. Therefore, it is impossible to give an answer to the question of how much money we lack, because I do not understand what exactly we need it for, except for general phrases. Did Mindich’s schemes, “two-for-Moscow” schemes go somewhere? Did not share. Can anyone guarantee that the issued loans will not disappear in an unknown direction like the previous ones? No.

It is not clear how the new loans will help, if the expenditure structure is completely opaque and there is no final goal. There are situational budget financing tasks, but there is no goal. “Survival” is not a goal, it is a given. If “survival” becomes the goal, then money is no longer a question at all. And if there is no goal, then all cash flows eventually go nowhere.

We have enough money: economist Borys Kushniruk

This amount – 45 billion euros per year, or more than 50 billion dollars per year – is quite enough. This will definitely be enough for us for a year. And at the same time, there is still money from the IMF, there are funds from potential other donors. Therefore, I believe that we actually cover the main costs. The fact that individual ministers claim that we need 120 billion — well, we can invite at least 200. But there is a reality.

Undoubtedly, there is no such thing as a lot of money. But even in this case, there will be enough money, the aid mechanism works. I have said this many times before: there is no need to worry, eventually funding will be found. So for the next two years, the question is closed on basic things, and I don’t think it makes sense to search for something additional.

This is the optimal solution, it will be enough to “support the pants”: candidate of economic sciences Vadim Syrota

What the European Union allocates to us is enough to “support our pants”. Western aid to cover the budget deficit all these years amounted to approximately 40 billion dollars. Well, plus or minus a few billion. Now we will be given a loan of 90 billion euros for two years. That is, we will have enough to cover budget expenses for these two years.

True, I still do not understand where this populism comes from regarding the increase in teachers’ salaries, regarding the free 3,000 kilometers of the railway – I will not comment here. I wonder if our Western partners have seen this attraction of unprecedented generosity and what they think about it.

In general, the war has long since passed from an exclusively military component to a war including an economic one, a war of attrition. In these conditions, we need economic planning. This is the weapon that is more important than the conditional “Tomahawk” or “Oreshnik”.

If our officials were professional economists true, we would not live according to the principle “we would have to endure the day and stand still the night”, but there would be elementary, adequate calculations. And not what we see now.

Here we will get this loan from the EU, I hope. But is there an understanding that all our main partners in Europe are countries with colossal fiscal and budget deficits? The same Britain has chronic economic problems, the same in France. All our European partners are “hospitals for sick economies” in the context of the budget deficit. And how can we hope for their strong support without the participation of the United States? Did we take that into account? Probably not.

Be that as it may, this 90-billion-euro European loan is the optimal decision on the part of the EU under the existing conditions.

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