Government made an economic forecast: under the worst-case scenario – 2.4% GDP growth and 9.9% inflation

The government approved the forecast for the economic and social development of Ukraine for 2026-2028. Next year, GDP growth is expected at 4.5% and inflation at 8.6% year-on-year under a more positive scenario, writes UNN with reference to government resolution No. 946 of August 6.

DetailsA less positive scenario envisages 2.4% GDP growth and 9.9% inflation (December to December) in 2026.

In 2027, GDP growth is projected at 5% in the best-case scenario and 4.7% in the worst-case scenario. For annual inflation, expectations are 5.9% and 9.4%, respectively.

For 2028, the figures are as follows: 5.7% GDP growth and 5.3% inflation for the first scenario, and 4.5% GDP growth and 7.5% for the second.

Nominal salary is projected at UAH 30,240 for the better scenario and UAH 30,032 for the worse in 2026; in 2027 – UAH 35,268 and UAH 34,808 respectively; in 2028 – UAH 39,758 and UAH 39,436 respectively.

The unemployment rate for the population aged 15-70 (according to the ILO methodology) is expected to be 12.9% of the labor force of the corresponding age for the first scenario and 12.6% for the second scenario in 2026; 13.3% and 12.7% in 2027 respectively; 12.8% and 13.1% in 2028 respectively.

In 2026-2027, GDP growth of 3-3.5% can be expected – Deputy Head of the NBU24.07.25, 15:54 • 2478 views