“US bitcoin ETF AUM fell less than 4% despite a 36% price correction from the October high.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
Until August, the two assets had similar returns, both up roughly 30%. From that point, gold surged while bitcoin rolled over sharply.
This divergence reinforced that gold won the debasement trade narrative leaving bitcoin firmly behind.
Bitcoin remains in recovery mode after a 36% correction from its October all-time high, struggling in the $80,000 range.
Despite the price weakness, capital flows tell a different story.
Bitwise managing director Bradley Duke pointed out that flows in bitcoin exchange traded product’s (ETP) outpaced gold ETP flows in 2025 despite gold’s blockbuster year.
The debut of US spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 marked year one of institutional adoption, while year two saw continued strong participation even as prices failed to follow.
The most notable takeaway from this current correction in bitcoin is the ETF investor resilience. Despite a 36% price drawdown, total bitcoin ETF assets under management (AUM) declined less than 4%.
Data from Checkonchain shows US ETFs held 1.37 million BTC at the October peak and still held around 1.32 million on Dec. 19. This suggests the bulk of the sell off did not come from ETF holders. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has increased its dominance during this correction, now holding just under 60% market share with roughly 780,000 BTC under management.
It is clear to see bitcoin’s correction was not driven by ETF outflows.
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The Wall Street bank said its bitcoin forecast relies on further crypto ETF inflows and a continued rally in traditional equity markets.
- Citigroup’s base case for bitcoin (BTC) is a rise to $143,000 in 12 months.
- Analysts highlight $70,000 as key support, with the potential for a sharp rise due to revived ETF demand and positive market forecasts.
- The bear case sees bitcoin falling to $78,500 amid a global recession, while the bull case predicts a rise to $189,000 due to increased investor demand.
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