Falling Russian oil exports and collapsing prices will hit Moscow's war chest – Bloomberg

Russian seaborne oil supplies have fallen for the fourth consecutive week, exacerbating the decline in the country’s oil prices and reducing the Kremlin’s revenues to a two-and-a-half-year low – about $1.2 billion per week, Bloomberg reports, writes UNN.

DetailsAccording to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, the country shipped 3.36 million barrels per day in the four weeks ending November 16. This is about 90,000 barrels less than in the same period before November 9 and is the lowest figure since late August.

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US sanctions imposed last month against two of Russia’s largest oil producers have prompted some buyers in Asia to announce reduced purchases. This negatively affects supplies to China and leads to an increase in the number of tankers with Russian oil in Indian ports. At least 11 such vessels are awaiting unloading, and November 21, set by the US for the cessation of relations with PJSC Rosneft and PJSC Lukoil, is already around the corner, the publication writes.

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The restrictions also appear to be increasing the volume of Russian oil at sea and pushing its trade further into the shadows, as more and more vessels turn off tracking signals near known clandestine transshipment points, the publication notes.

The latest US move has increased the number of tankers carrying Russian oil without disclosing their destination. Whether it’s because buyers don’t want to be identified, or because cargoes are moving without confirmed buyers, it’s still unclear, the publication writes.

Most vessels with unknown destinations are heading to Egypt’s Suez Canal from ports in the Baltic, Black Seas, or the Arctic. Other vessels are leaving Russia’s Pacific ports, with cargoes from two Sakhalin energy projects almost entirely transshipped from specialized shuttle tankers for further delivery, the publication indicates.

So far, US sanctions are reportedly having a stronger impact on cargo unloading at buyer terminals than on loading at Russian ports, resulting in more Moscow oil ending up at sea. The volume on tankers increased by 16% from late August and reached a revised value of 175 million barrels by November 16.

This figure could rise further in the coming weeks, as unloading is likely to become more difficult after November 21. Long-awaited legislation to impose sanctions on countries doing business with Russia could soon be put to a vote in the US Senate after US President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that he did not object to it.

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This could further complicate open purchases of Russian barrels for buyers in India, China, and Turkey, pushing trade further into the shadows. Vessels carrying Russian oil have begun to disappear from tracking screens at transshipment points such as the Riau archipelago east of Singapore.

In addition, attacks on Russian oil refining and export infrastructure continue. Strikes on the port of Novorossiysk on Friday briefly halted shipments, but they likely resumed by Sunday, the publication writes.

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According to vessel tracking data and port agent reports, 31 tankers loaded 23.06 million barrels of Russian oil in the week ending November 16. This volume was slightly down from the 23.43 million barrels transported by the same number of vessels the previous week.

On average, daily shipments for the week ending November 16 fell to 3.29 million barrels per day, about 50,000 barrels per day less than the previous week. Separately, one batch of Kazakh Kebco oil was shipped from Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk during the week.

In the Pacific region, the decrease in shipments from the port of Kozmino, where 9 tankers were loaded during the week, was offset by an increase in shipments from De-Kastri. In the west, the decrease in shipments from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga was only partially offset by an increase in Primorsk. In another region, another batch was shipped from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, despite an attack on the terminal that briefly halted operations, the publication writes.

Over the four-week average, Moscow’s gross export value fell by approximately $60 million to $1.22 billion per week for the 28 days ending November 16, with both export volumes and prices declining. This is the lowest figure since the four weeks ending April 2, 2023.

Based on this indicator, export prices for Russian Urals oil from the Baltic fell by approximately $1.70 per barrel to $48.62, while prices for Black Sea cargoes decreased by $2.50 per barrel to $47.98. The price of Pacific ESPO oil decreased by $0.80 to an average of $57.33 per barrel. Delivery prices in India also decreased by a more modest $0.40 to $60.88 per barrel, a new low since April 2023. All prices are according to Argus Media data.

On a weekly basis, the value of exports averaged about $1.09 billion for the 7 days to November 16, down 11% from the period to November 9, as lower weekly supplies were exacerbated by a sharp drop in prices, with cargoes from the Baltic and Black Seas falling in price by $6.80 and $8.90 per barrel, respectively.

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