“Demographic Crisis in Ukraine: Estimates from the Institute of Demography and Solutions to the ProblemsOver 30 years, Ukraine’s population has decreased by 20%, from 52.2 million in 1993 to 42 million in 2022. As of early 2025,
approximately 31.5 million people reside in the controlled territory, indicating a demographic loss of 10 million due to the war.
”, — write: unn.ua
DetailsDuring the forum of educators and employers: “You can’t hold youth, you can’t let them go,” Hladun said that the maximum population of Ukraine was in 1993 – 52.2 million. At the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the population was estimated at 42 million.
If we compare 1993 with 2022, the difference is 10 million. This is a very rapid reduction in population, meaning that over 30 years there has been a 20% decrease. The change in the age and sex structure is a global trend. Currently, it is regressive, with the older age groups dominating the population.
He noted that in Ukraine, mortality has exceeded the birth rate since 1991.
We also had a sharp increase in mortality in 2021 due to COVID-19. At that time, COVID-19 ranked second among causes of death, after cardiovascular diseases.
Current demographic situation in UkraineIn February 2025, Ella Libanova, director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies, reported that the population of Ukraine in the government-controlled territory is currently about 31.5 million people, which means that demographic losses due to the war amount to about 10 million people. This is almost a quarter of the total population of the country before the start of Russian aggression in 2014.
Also, during the forum, the deputy director of the Institute of Demography noted that Ukraine is lagging behind leading European countries by 8-10 years in terms of life expectancy.
Another feature, according to him, is a huge gap between the life expectancy of men and women – 10 years.
We have high mortality among men, especially of working age. In leading European countries, it’s 2-3 years, and in some, it’s even less.
Causes of the demographic crisis in Ukraine: war, migrationHladun noted that due to the war, Ukraine has a difficult demographic situation.
The war has a very strong impact, as during wartime, the birth rate usually decreases, mortality increases due to those who die at the front and civilians due to shelling. Plus, chronic diseases worsen, which also increases the mortality rate.
He emphasized that Ukraine is currently characterized by very large migration. Hladun also reminded that, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, about 6.9 million Ukrainians have gone abroad.
We see that about two-thirds are women who are now in EU countries. Many people are of working age and schoolchildren. If we look at the group aged 60 and older, let’s conditionally take the retirement group, it’s about 60%. This indicates that pensioners remained in Ukraine, while young people and the working-age population left. This is a huge problem for Ukraine.
Demographic Collapse: How Falling Birth Rates Undermine Ukraine’s Economy – Expert Commentary07.07.25, 10:42 • 119246 views
Demographic policy in Ukraine: what steps the state needsAccording to the State Statistics Service, in January-June 2025, 249 thousand deaths and only 86.8 thousand births were registered in Ukraine. This means that mortality exceeded the birth rate by 2.9 times.
Hladun told a UNN journalist that in order to influence the birth rate situation in Ukraine, it is necessary to change the approach, funding, and support for families with children.
Now the payment has been raised to 50 thousand UAH, and it was 41 thousand UAH at the birth of a child. This amount was approved in 2014. In terms of the euro exchange rate, it fell by about three times, and if by the inflation index, then by about 4-4.5 times.
The expert noted that material payments at the birth of a child do not significantly increase the birth rate.
Under Yushchenko (the 3rd President of Ukraine – ed.), a system was introduced that depended on the order of birth. When the payment for the birth of a second child was twice as much, and for the birth of a third – three times, this is correct, because when a second child is born – it’s not for the second child, it’s for two children living in the family. The third child – it’s money for three children. Then all this was leveled out and it began to fail from 2014. In 2014, the birth rate began to decline again.
The second factor, according to the expert, that influences the birth rate is housing.
We currently have programs with low interest rates. MPs proposed a payment that would allow buying an additional room immediately and an interest-free loan for 30-40 years. Then this makes it possible to support the family. Such large-scale measures work. And the “baby package,” “schoolchild package” – this is social policy, family support, it does not contribute to increasing the birth rate. Such amounts cannot stimulate or create an atmosphere. In general, having a child is more of an individual decision, and creating conditions for the further functioning and living of the family is a problem for the state.
In addition, Hladun noted that an important aspect is creating conditions for combining work and raising a child.
What does this mean? Flexible working hours for preschool childcare facilities, flexible working hours at work. A preschool facility is a local authority, and work is business, and the state should influence business. We have a system where if a person with a disability is hired, taxes are reduced. Such mechanisms need to be introduced so that businesses are not afraid to hire pregnant women (women – ed.) with children. Then there can be an option where, when a child is born, the business pays less tax. Now it is planned, and this is also correct, that if a woman goes on maternity leave, she should be paid her average salary, or at least, at a minimum, contributions to the Unified Social Contribution, then this will count towards her insurance record.
The expert noted that there should be a set of measures, one thing alone will not work.
Hladun said that studies conducted before Russia’s full-scale invasion showed that, in principle, young families were oriented towards having two children, but in fact, Ukraine currently has a one-child family model, because due to various circumstances, people cannot realize their reproductive potential.
Demographic forecast: what awaits Ukraine after the warHladun believes that after the end of the war in Ukraine, the population will continue to decline overall, but at a much slower pace.
This is due to the birth rate and the age and sex structure that we have. (This is the aging of the population and a significant predominance of women in numbers – ed.)
Hladun noted that Ukraine is unlikely to reach 220 children per 200 women immediately, but reaching the average Western European level is quite possible.
We have a greater value for family than Western Europe, a greater focus on children. This is a positive factor that can contribute. As for the other factor – mortality, we have very large reserves here. If our life expectancy increases and reaches the level of Western European countries, then the rates of population decline will also be lower.
In addition, the expert commented on migration processes.
As for migration, there is a struggle for people here. If earlier it was said that there was a brain drain, now it is actually just working-age people. We need to understand why our people are leaving and change the situation. Either change people’s attitudes, or the situation in the country.
He stated that attempts to compensate for the population decline through migration will lead to a certain deterioration of the situation in the country.
It all depends on where and how many people come to us. This will lead to a change in the ethnic, social, and religious composition of the population. This will cause a certain exacerbation within the country, which we are currently observing in Western European countries.
This refers to protests against migrants, particularly in Britain and the Netherlands.
This is the result of the wrong policies of these countries’ governments for decades. We do not need to repeat this experience, we need to understand that we will never have 52 million. We already have a different demographic reality and need to adapt to this reality.
The expert emphasizes that economic growth can be ensured not only by increasing the population, but also by increasing labor productivity, changing the structure of the economy so that it generates more profit for the country.
If many migrants are brought in now. Let’s imagine, the war is over, we will have about a million people demobilized, they will come, and the jobs will be taken. What will they do? They will go abroad, and this will be another wave of migration. The numbers that are published, that we need 4-5 million additional working hands, I do not see justifications for what economic structure, for what territories all this is calculated.
Hladun believes that it is necessary to conclude official contracts with foreigners for a certain period and for certain work.
And in our country, for the last 2 years, the Ministry of Economy has completely removed limits on bringing foreigners into the labor market.
What influences Ukrainians’ decision to go abroadHladun stated during the forum that the decision of people to go abroad for work or study is influenced by the war.
Plus, the general situation in the country, the feeling of whether you can realize yourself here or not. In particular, I think the policy of the Ministry of Education and Science, which is constantly raising the cost of education, is wrong, while many higher education institutions offer free education to Ukrainians.
In addition, Hladun noted that the decision of Ukrainians to return is influenced by the duration of the war, various social and economic conditions in Ukraine, and the conditions that will be in the countries where Ukrainians are staying.
Most countries pursue a policy of adapting Ukrainian citizens, so it is difficult to say what percentage will return. In our expert opinion, if 50% return, that will be good. But 50% is approximately 3 million people, which is a lot.
In the Ministry of Social Policy, it was explained why it is impossible to solve labor market problems with quick immigration, and what else is needed25.06.25, 11:45 • 65275 views