“Against the backdrop of the “Disease” of the dollar, the euro is increasingly turning into the same “conditional unit” of the 90’s – a measure of everything for business and the population. And the presence of two “conventional units” at the same time creates both risks and opens new opportunities.”, – WRITE: www.unian.ua
The Ukrainian “mattress” (more precisely – what is under it) is the most secret, but also the most indicative indicator of the state of financial affairs in the country. And now, against the backdrop of the growth of the euro, it is the pan -European currency that is increasing its volume in the hiding places of our fellow citizens. And yet – in the NBU reserves and public finances, because without the help of the US for Trump, it is in the euro that we receive the most financial support from donors.
But is it really an euro growth rather than another fall in the hryvnia? How will the reinforcement of the euro affect prices in Ukraine and the country’s budget? How will it affect Ukrainians abroad – tourists, workers and, of course, refugees? And, in general, this growth of the euro with the weakening of the dollar is we more in favor of or vice versa? UNIAN communicated with experts and found answers to all these questions.
Euro against the dollarAgainst the backdrop of political troubles between the EU and the US (trade wars on the pause, but not completed), some competition between the euro and the dollar is increasing: the latter weakens, and the Eurocurrency is increasing.
The dynamics of the hryvnia course to the euro. Data: Trading EconomicsIt should be added that the euro is more expensive than the dollar for the last ten years, with some exceptions.
For example, 2022, when the Kremlin restricted the supply of gas to the EU before the heating season and hoped that Europeans would run to the Russians to bow. Then the euro lost in price, and the dollar intensified – the rate was 0.96 euros per 1 “portrait” of the US president.
However, the opposite is more frequent – when the dollar is cheaper relative to the euro against the background of crises. So it was for Trump’s “late” in his first cadence, when the “green” currency installed an anti -record – 1.24 dollars per euro. The second but less significant wave of devaluation of the dollar – during Baiden during the Pandemia of 2020. Moreover, you should not think that the euro was rapidly rising – devaluation was in both currencies, just the dollar then cheaper faster.
Then the temporary effect of euro weakening in 2022 was mentioned, as well as at the end of Biden’s cadence in 2024 and early 2025. However, the new-start of the Trump administration immediately began to “fight” with a “re-sent” dollar to support its own exports.
This process went in parallel with customs scandals – all for the sake of American exports to strengthen, and imports to the US from other countries, on the contrary, weaken. How to align the external trade balance that is so worried about Trump.
From the rate of $ 1.01 per euro in January, the US currency depreciated up to 1.16 in June. Which led, accordingly, to the rise in the euro – in Ukraine. After all, the hryvnia course, according to the old “habit”, is tied to the dollar.
According to the hryvnia over the same period, the rate of European currency increased from 42.7 hryvnia for 1 euro in early January to 48.1 hryvnias for 1 euro on June 16. Actually, it was a record for the euro and the anti -record for the hryvnia. The NBU official exchange rate at the time of writing was UAH 47.86, which indicates a certain (and possibly temporary) correction of the course.
The euro to the dollar is now high but not the highest. Data: Trading Economics”The current growth of the euro to the hryvnia is, above all, a consequence of strengthening the European currency in the world markets, not a sign of devaluation of the hryvnia. The euro has intensified to the highest level against the US dollar since 2021. This is due to a number of global factors: the weakening of the dollar The US systems, as well as the rhetoric of the European Central Bank representatives, which are currently demonstrating a rigid position on the rates, ” – said the economist of the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) Bogdan Slutsky.
According to him, the euro and the dollar courses in the hryvnia in Ukraine are almost completely in line with their ratio in international markets. Which means that the Ukrainian currency market “functions stable, without distortion”, and the hryvnia responds adequately to global trends, “not weakens for internal reasons.”
A course of bad news and forecasts for investorsYuri Krochmal, Head of the Treasury Products Service Bank Avangard JSC, agrees that the growth of the euro is not related to the fall of the hryvnia, but considers the current course, rather, speculative, which is based on bad – primarily for the USA – news.
“The main reason for the growth of the euro to the hryvnia is the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar against the background etc. “, – says the banker.
He adds that the euro is “very variable” and to talk about long -term steel trends.
“If the US regulates the issues of duties and trade agreements with its main partners in the future future, and/or helps to end the war in the Middle East, the dollar has a chance to play its positions,” Mr. Starch predicts.
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn also agrees with colleagues, but adds more context. In particular, he explains why an important indicator is not only the rate of the European Central Bank, but also the rate of the US Federal Reserve above, which this Wednesday – June 18 – retained it unchanged at the level of 4.25-4.5%, contrary to Trump’s requirements.
“It is the euro in the world markets in respect of a relatively stable US dollar. The euro has already exceeded the April maxima this year – the previous maximum was on April 21. There is expectation that the euro will grow due to the weakness of the dollar. And it will weaken, because inflation in the states is slowing down, which increases the chances of the Fed. Factors.
