“On-chain metrics show BTC entering an “extremely bearish” phase, with potential downside to $91K or even $72K if key support fails, although Glassnode sees it as a mid-cycle correction rather than full capitulation.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
Bitcoin hovered around $101,000 as the Friday trading day began in Hong Kong, as on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that market conditions have turned “extremely bearish.”
In its latest weekly report, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s drop below the 365-day moving average of $102,000 marked the loss of a key technical and psychological support that previously defined the bottom of this bull cycle. The firm’s Bull Score Index — a composite measure of market strength — has fallen to zero for the first time since June 2022, a signal last seen before the previous bear market.
CryptoQuant added that traders’ on-chain realized price bands now point to potential downside targets near $72,000 if BTC fails to recover above $100,000 soon.
It also identified the $91,000 region, based on Metcalfe’s network valuation model, as the next structural support level. “Failure to reclaim the 365-day moving average quickly could trigger a much larger correction,” the firm said.
The report follows weeks of weakening fundamentals, including falling inflows, reduced network activity, and a flattening of key on-chain valuation metrics. CryptoQuant analysts said the setup now resembles late 2021, when a similar break below the long-term average confirmed the start of a prolonged drawdown.
Still, this view is not universal.
In a report from earlier this week titled “Defending $100K,” Glassnode wrote that the market remains “cautious, oversold, but not yet deeply capitulated,” with 71% of supply still in profit and unrealized losses contained to just 3.1% of market cap.
While long-term holders are selling and ETF outflows continue, Glassnode says the current phase is a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market.
Market MovementBTC: Bitcoin slipped as low as $100,420 overnight before recovering slightly to trade around $101,000 in Asia hours, extending a weeklong decline that’s wiped nearly 7% from its value.
ETH: Ether fell to an intraday low of $3,285 before edging back to $3,310 in early Asia trading, down about 2% on the day and roughly 13% over the past week.
Golden: Gold rebounded towards the $4,000 level on Wednesday, rising as much as 1.5% to $3,989.53 an ounce as investors sought safety amid a global equities sell-off, even as strong US jobs data tempered expectations for further Fed rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Friday, tracking Wall Street’s tech-led sell-off as AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir slumped, while investors awaited China’s trade data expected to show weaker exports and imports.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- What DraftKings and FanDuel Prediction Market Plays Mean for the Sports Betting Biz (Decrypt)
- Samourai Wallet Developer Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison for Unlicensed Money Transmitting (CoinDesk)
- Central Bank of Ireland fines Coinbase Europe $25 million for breaching anti-money laundering monitoring obligations (The Block)
A deep dive into Zcash’s zero-knowledge architecture, shielded transaction growth, and its path to becoming encrypted Bitcoin at scale.
- Shielded adoption surgedwith 20–25% of circulating ZEC now held in encrypted addresses and 30% of transactions involving the shielded pool.
- The Zashi wallet made shielded transfers the default, pushing privacy from optional to standard practice.
- Project Tachyonled by Sean Bowe, aims to boost throughput to thousands of private transactions per second.
- Zcash surpassed Monero in market share, becoming the largest privacy-focused cryptocurrency by capitalization.
View Full Report
For the first time, users can access live market odds on future events directly in Google Search and Google Finance, elevating blockchain-powered forecasts into public view.
- Google will now display real-time prediction market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi in Google Search and Google Finance.
- The integration brings crowd-sourced forecasts into mainstream finance tools, starting with US elections and recession odds.
- This marks a rare mainstream use of blockchain-based prediction data, as Google revamps its financial tools with AI and global features.
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