“Record volume, redemptions and pronounced tilt toward put options points to institutional capitulation.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
On Thursday, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, ticked as IBIT, hit a wild record with over 284 million shares traded, per Nasdaq data. That’s a whopping $10 billion-plus in notional value.
To put it in perspective, that smashed the old record of 169.21 million shares from Nov. 21 by a massive 169%.
The record volume came as IBIT plunged 13% to under $35, the lowest since Oct. 11, 2024, extending the year-to-date loss to 27%. Prices peaked at a high of $71.82 in early October.
The fund processed redemptions totaling $175.33 million on Thursday, accounting for 40% of the cumulative net outflow of $434.11 million across 11 funds, according to SoSoValue.
IBIT, the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin fund, holds physical coins and is designed to mirror the spot price of the world’s top cryptocurrency, which has been declining recently, crashing to nearly $60,000 on Thursday. The fund has been a preferred alternative investment vehicle for institutions seeking exposure to cryptocurrency through regulated products.
Capitulation hintsThe combination of record volume and price crash often signals capitulation – long-term holders throwing in the towel and liquidating their holdings at a loss.
It marks the bear market’s peak selling phase, potentially signaling the start of a slow, painful bottoming process.
IBIT options trading on Thursday told the same story. Longer duration put options. or contracts used to hedge against downturns, reached a record premium of over 25 volatility points above call options (bullish bets), according to data from MarketChameleon.
That kind of heavy put bias often signals peak fear as well.
That said, nothing’s guaranteed, as bear markets can drag on longer than even dip buyers can stay liquid.