““Powell is threading the needle between his two mandates,” said one analyst.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
Swinging around $92,000 for most of the day, BTC jolted to $94,400 as Powell — in his post-meeting press conference — emphasized the risks of a possibly weaker than thought labor market, before giving back most of the gains after he said the battle over too-high inflation is far from over.
Recently, BTC changed hands at $93,500, up 0.5% over the past 24 hours. Ether ETH$3,398.29 extended its recent streak of relative strength, trading above $3,400 and rising about 2.4% during the same period.
Fed policy, said Powell in his post-meeting press conference, is now “within a range of plausible estimates of neutral, and leaves us well-positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments.”
“We’re well positioned to wait and see [about further rate cuts]”, he added.
Powell acknowledged that there’ll be “a great deal of data” before the Fed’s next meeting in January that will influence how the central bank moves forward.
Along with the Fed’s decision earlier to trim its fed funds rate range by 25 basis points, the New York Fed announced it will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bills, and Treasury securities with remaining maturities of up to 3 years if needed, targeting around $40 billion in purchases over the next month starting on Friday — a step aimed at easing financial conditions without signaling the start of a full-blown quantitative easing cycle.
Powell said that the purchases will remain “elevated” for a few months.
That marks a change from the past three years of the central bank reducing its balance sheet following the rapid expansion during the pandemic years.
Analyst takes”The Fed made clear that this cut does not mark the start of an aggressive easing cycle, with emphasis on the fact that future moves will depend heavily on incoming inflation and labor-market data,” Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at brokerage firm Capital.com said in a note.
“While policymakers agreed on the need to ease modestly amid patchy post-shutdown data and signs of slowing momentum, the updated communication stressed caution,” she added.
“The fact that two FOMC members voted for no change in rates shows that this was a close call, complicated by a lack of full data,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings. The relatively mild pick up in core inflation in recent months probably swayed the committee that another cut — while keeping rates somewhat above neutral — was justified.
“It seems unlikely that rates will continue to fall at sequential meetings from here. We now expect just two more cuts by June 2026, taking the Fed Funds rate to 3.25% (upper band),” he said.
“Between signaling a rate cut pause and restarting Fed purchases of US Treasuries, Powell is threading the needle between their two mandates,” noted David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21Shares.
For bitcoin to break higher from its trading range, Hernandez said that it needs fresh momentum to “overpower the concentrated short pressure” at around the $94,500 resistance zone, right where Wednesday’s burst higher hit a ceiling.
“If spot ETF inflows strengthen as expected now that the cost of capital is falling, that could become the spark that transforms caution into momentum and drives Bitcoin back above the $100,000 psychological barrier,” he said.
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The anticipated move comes as policymakers are still operating without several key economic data releases that remain delayed or suspended due to the US government shutdown.
- As expected, the Federal Reserve trimmed its benchmark fed funds rate range by 25 basis points on Wednesday afternoon.
- Today’s cut is notable given the unusually large amount of public dissent among Fed members for further monetary ease.
- Two Fed members dissented from the rate cut, preferring instead to hold rates steady, while one member voted for a 50 basis point rate cut.
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